When available and used optimally, antiretroviral therapy (ART) can dramatically reduce the morbidity and mortality associated with perinatally-acquired HIV disease. In resource-limited settings such as South Africa, however, the most effective diagnostic tests and ART regimens for the management of perinatal HIV infection are often not available. As a result, more than 60,000 perinatal infections and 20,000 pediatric HIV deaths may occur annually in South Africa alone. Clinicians and policy-makers in South Africa currently select diagnostic tests and ART regimens for children based on limited available data about efficacy, toxicity, and cost. Decision analysis can complement more traditional clinical research methods by synthesizing data from multiple sources and projecting the future outcomes of diagnostic and therapeutic strategies over the lifetimes of HIV-infected children. This K01 Award application proposes three Specific Aims based on these methods: 1. To construct a Monte Carlo simulation model of perinatal HIV disease, and to use as parameters in the model the best available data in the literature and from collaborating investigators in South Africa. 2. To evaluate the long-term clinical outcomes and cost-effectiveness of ART initiation in the first year of life, compared to deferred therapy. 3. To evaluate the clinical outcomes and relative cost-effectiveness of currently recommended diagnostic testing algorithms for early infant diagnosis. To facilitate this proposed research, the Candidate, Andrea Ciaranello, MD, will pursue coursework in advanced biostatistics and modeling methodology, operations research, and ethical principles pertinent to HIV/AIDS in resource-limited settings. Dr. Ciaranello will benefit from the resources of the Massachusetts General Hospital and the Harvard School of Public Health;from the support of mentors with expertise in modeling techniques, perinatal HIV infection, and international HIV research and with outstanding records of mentorship;and from her collaborations with clinical investigators in South Africa and with the international Kids'ART-LINC research consortium. This K01 Award will facilitate Dr. Ciaranello's career development and her transition to an independent HIV clinical outcomes investigator.
This K01 Award will lead to analyses that will inform clinical decisions, as well as national and international policy guidelines, regarding the management of HIV infection in children. The proposed research aligns with the published priorities of the NIH Office of AIDS research, including the evaluation of the most effective, setting-specific strategies for diagnosis, care and treatment of HIV-infected children and adolescents.
|Keebler, Daniel; Revill, Paul; Braithwaite, Scott et al. (2014) Cost-effectiveness of different strategies to monitor adults on antiretroviral treatment: a combined analysis of three mathematical models. Lancet Glob Health 2:e35-43|
|Ciaranello, Andrea; Lu, Zhigang; Ayaya, Samuel et al. (2014) Incidence of World Health Organization stage 3 and 4 events, tuberculosis and mortality in untreated, HIV-infected children enrolling in care before 1 year of age: an IeDEA (International Epidemiologic Databases To Evaluate AIDS) East Africa regional anal Pediatr Infect Dis J 33:623-9|
|Ciaranello, Andrea L; Leroy, Valeriane; Rusibamayila, Asinath et al. (2014) Individualizing the WHO HIV and infant feeding guidelines: optimal breastfeeding duration to maximize infant HIV-free survival. AIDS 28 Suppl 3:S287-99|
|Desmonde, Sophie; Essanin, Jean-Bosco; Aka, Addi E et al. (2014) Morbidity and health care resource utilization in HIV-infected children after antiretroviral therapy initiation in Côte d'Ivoire, 2004-2009. J Acquir Immune Defic Syndr 65:e95-103|
|Doherty, Kathleen; Essajee, Shaffiq; Penazzato, Martina et al. (2014) Estimating age-based antiretroviral therapy costs for HIV-infected children in resource-limited settings based on World Health Organization weight-based dosing recommendations. BMC Health Serv Res 14:201|
|Ciaranello, Andrea L; Perez, Freddy; Engelsmann, Barbara et al. (2013) Cost-effectiveness of World Health Organization 2010 guidelines for prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe. Clin Infect Dis 56:430-46|
|Levison, Julie H; Wood, Robin; Scott, Callie A et al. (2013) The clinical and economic impact of genotype testing at first-line antiretroviral therapy failure for HIV-infected patients in South Africa. Clin Infect Dis 56:587-97|
|Doherty, Katie; Ciaranello, Andrea (2013) What is needed to eliminate new pediatric HIV infections: the contribution of model-based analyses. Curr Opin HIV AIDS 8:457-66|
|Ciaranello, Andrea L; Perez, Freddy; Keatinge, Jo et al. (2012) What will it take to eliminate pediatric HIV? Reaching WHO target rates of mother-to-child HIV transmission in Zimbabwe: a model-based analysis. PLoS Med 9:e1001156|
|Desmonde, Sophie; Coffie, Patrick; Aka, Edmond et al. (2011) Severe morbidity and mortality in untreated HIV-infected children in a paediatric care programme in Abidjan, Cote d'Ivoire, 2004-2009. BMC Infect Dis 11:182|
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