The current proposal is an application for a Career Development Award (K08). The applicant is a new researcher with training in medicine and cardiovascular disease (CVD) epidemiology. The applicant's research will focus on the dawning CVD epidemic in developing nations, and will first focus on future CVD in China. China, the most populous of nations, is undergoing extraordinary economic growth and urbanization. The Chinese population is aging, and levels of CVD risk factors, i.e. hypertension, dyslipidemia, overweight, and diabetes are increasing, while the prevalence of smoking remains approximately 60% in Chinese men. The trends in age and CVD risk factors are expected to result in a CVD epidemic in china, but the scale of the problem and the best measures to prevent it are unknown. The applicant proposes to build upon a validated CVD prediction model from the U.S. in order to forecast the epidemic of CVD in China, and identify preventative interventions. The current proposal will serve to develop the applicant into an independent investigator in the field of international CVD epidemiology and policy research. The career development/training activities include mentored training in CVD epidemic forecasting, decision analysis, cost-effectiveness, probabilistic statistics, health economics, computer modeling, and the ethical conduct of research. The research plan proposes to develop the candidate as an expert in building CVD policy computer models for developing countries through 1) using country-specific data to adapt and calibrate a coronary heart disease prediction model for China upon the framework of an established model from the U.S., and 2) building an expanded CVD policy model by adding stroke prediction and stroke states to the China model. The proposed research will describe the profound impact of CVD in aging, economically developing nations like China. The research plan has the potential to use the U.S. experience with controlling CVD to limit the burden of CVD in other nations. Adding a stroke component the coronary heart disease model will create a CVD policy model that will have applications in the U.S. Completion of this award will prepare the candidate to compete for R01 funding toward the development of a CVD prediction model adaptable to multiple countries.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute (NHLBI)
Type
Clinical Investigator Award (CIA) (K08)
Project #
5K08HL089675-05
Application #
8268431
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZHL1-CSR-O (M1))
Program Officer
Ni, Hanyu
Project Start
2008-09-01
Project End
2014-05-31
Budget Start
2012-06-01
Budget End
2014-05-31
Support Year
5
Fiscal Year
2012
Total Cost
$129,951
Indirect Cost
$9,626
Name
Columbia University (N.Y.)
Department
Internal Medicine/Medicine
Type
Schools of Medicine
DUNS #
621889815
City
New York
State
NY
Country
United States
Zip Code
10032
Wang, Miao; Moran, Andrew E; Liu, Jing et al. (2014) Cost-effectiveness of optimal use of acute myocardial infarction treatments and impact on coronary heart disease mortality in China. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 7:78-85
Moran, Andrew E; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Roth, Gregory A et al. (2014) Temporal trends in ischemic heart disease mortality in 21 world regions, 1980 to 2010: the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study. Circulation 129:1483-92
Feigin, Valery L; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Krishnamurthi, Rita et al. (2014) Global and regional burden of stroke during 1990-2010: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010. Lancet 383:245-54
Moran, Andrew E; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H; Roth, Gregory A et al. (2014) The global burden of ischemic heart disease in 1990 and 2010: the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study. Circulation 129:1493-501
Moran, Andrew E; Tzong, Keane Y; Forouzanfar, Mohammad H et al. (2014) Variations in ischemic heart disease burden by age, country, and income: the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 study. Glob Heart 9:91-9
Moran, Andrew; Forouzanfar, Mohammad; Sampson, Uchechukwu et al. (2013) The epidemiology of cardiovascular diseases in sub-Saharan Africa: the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk Factors 2010 Study. Prog Cardiovasc Dis 56:234-9
Galper, Benjamin Z; Moran, Andrew; Coxson, Pamela G et al. (2012) Using stress testing to guide primary prevention of coronary heart disease among intermediate-risk patients: a cost-effectiveness analysis. Circulation 125:260-70
Odden, Michelle C; Coxson, Pamela G; Moran, Andrew et al. (2011) The impact of the aging population on coronary heart disease in the United States. Am J Med 124:827-33.e5
Moran, Andrew; Degennaro, Vincent; Ferrante, Daniel et al. (2011) Coronary heart disease and stroke attributable to major risk factors is similar in Argentina and the United States: the Coronary Heart Disease Policy Model. Int J Cardiol 150:332-7
Moran, Andrew; Gu, Dongfeng; Zhao, Dong et al. (2010) Future cardiovascular disease in china: markov model and risk factor scenario projections from the coronary heart disease policy model-china. Circ Cardiovasc Qual Outcomes 3:243-52