The last two decades have been a period of experimentation in education policy in the United States, aimed at achieving the twin goals of boosting achievement and closing achievement gaps between disadvantaged and other students. Nearly all evaluations have focused on estimating the average impacts of these policies on student outcomes;some have also examined how these average impacts vary across subgroups of students defined by such characteristics as ethnicity and family socioeconomic status. As argued at length in Projects l-ll, developmental theory suggests that good and bad matches between student circumstances and intervention program design will produce heterogeneous program impacts, and that understanding the nature of this heterogeneity is essential for optimizing program design. Projects l-ll propose tests of child/policy fit hypotheses with interaction models allowing for differential program impacts across population subgroups that are defined by baseline characteristics. The current project develops and implements complementary approaches to testing child/policy fit hypotheses: quantile treatment effect estimation and other distributional estimators. It applies these techniques to data from four different education settings that range from pre-kindergarten to high school. In the case ofthe Head Start Impact Study and a voucher program to enable poor children to attend private schools in New York City, we test hypotheses suggesting ways in which modest overall effects mask systematic impact differences for children with different academic skills and behavioral characteristics. A third analysis will test hypotheses regarding the effects of policies encouraging middle schoolers to enroll in Algebra on the distribution of student motivation and achievement. Our final tests are of the distribution of impacts on effort and achievement of high-stakes exit exams as well as low-stakes (to students) accountability tests. The fifth year of our project would involve outreach activities designed to promote the use of these techniques more broadly in education evaluations.

Public Health Relevance

We propose to apply and extend new methods to the analysis of effects of four educational interventions across the full distribution of children's outcomes. Our research will make these techniques more accessible for applied researchers while testing theoretical predictions from achievement goal and developmental theory. Our research has implications for the use of overall and subgroup specific mean-based impacts as ways of targeting interventions.

National Institute of Health (NIH)
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD)
Research Program Projects (P01)
Project #
Application #
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZHD1-DSR-W (DG))
Project Start
Project End
Budget Start
Budget End
Support Year
Fiscal Year
Total Cost
Indirect Cost
University of California Irvine
United States
Zip Code
Watts, Tyler W; Duncan, Greg J; Clements, Douglas H et al. (2017) What Is the Long-Run Impact of Learning Mathematics During Preschool? Child Dev :
Hanselman, Paul; Rozek, Christopher S; Grigg, Jeffrey et al. (2017) New Evidence on Self-Affirmation Effects and Theorized Sources of Heterogeneity from Large-Scale Replications. J Educ Psychol 109:405-424
Duncan, Robert; Washburn, Isaac J; Lewis, Kendra M et al. (2017) Can Universal SEL Programs Benefit Universally? Effects of the Positive Action Program on Multiple Trajectories of Social-Emotional and Misconduct Behaviors. Prev Sci 18:214-224
Miller, Elizabeth B (2017) Spanish Instruction in Head Start and Dual Language Learners' Academic Achievement. J Appl Dev Psychol 52:159-169
Duncan, Greg J; Kalil, Ariel; Ziol-Guest, Kathleen M (2017) Increasing Inequality in Parent Incomes and Children's Schooling. Demography 54:1603-1626
Schenke, Katerina; Nguyen, Tutrang; Watts, Tyler W et al. (2017) Differential effects of the classroom on African American and non-African American's mathematics achievement. J Educ Psychol 109:794-811
Magnuson, Katherine; Duncan, Greg; Lee, Kenneth T H et al. (2016) Early School Adjustment and Educational Attainment. Am Educ Res J 53:1198-1228
Duncan, Greg J; Magnuson, Katherine; Murnane, Richard J (2016) Reforming Preschools and Schools. Acad Pediatr 16:S121-7
Bailey, Drew H; Littlefield, Andrew K (2016) Does Reading Cause Later Intelligence? Accounting for Stability in Models of Change. Child Dev :
Miller, Elizabeth B; Farkas, George; Duncan, Greg J (2016) Does Head Start differentially benefit children with risks targeted by the program's service model? Early Child Res Q 34:1-12

Showing the most recent 10 out of 37 publications