Mortality patterns reflect fundamental characteristics of societies and help to reveal important changes in population health over time. In order to improve our understanding of such topics, we propose here to examine historical and contemporary mortality patterns for a wide range of countries, including the United States. The work for this project is organized into three parts. The first part consists of an analysis of comparative mortality trends in high-income countries. In the second part, we will continue our efforts to develop publicly accessible data resources for the analysis of global mortality trends, including the developing world. In the third part of this project, we will develop new and better methods for estimating and analyzing mortality in both developed and developing countries. The substantive questions that motivate this project are focused on certain features of recent mortality trends. Specifically, we will examine the pronounced slowdown in the pace of mortality reduction at advanced ages in the United States since around 1980. This trend has affected female mortality in particular, contributing to an overall narrowing of sex differences. We propose to investigate the contribution of key risk factors (especially, smoking and obesity) to these recent trends. To enrich these studies, the project includes a detailed plan for collecting and organizing historical mortality data by cause of death, which will be shared publicly via the Human Mortality Database (www.mortality.org). The project will also address a number of important issues regarding methods for estimating current and historical mortality levels, especially in developing countries. We will develop updated methods of indirect estimation using a new system of model life tables that we have proposed recently. We will also develop new and better methods for quantifying the uncertainty of mortality estimates, especially for countries that lack complete and reliable data from censuses and vital registration. To facilitate this research, we are building a complex database for storing all forms of data that are typically used for estimating both all-cause and cause-specific mortality in national populations.

Public Health Relevance

""""""""Studies in Global Mortality"""""""" examines historical and contemporary mortality patterns for a wide range of countries, including the United States. Estimating mortality and its causes is an important step in determining the relative importance of factors preventing longer life, and as such are directly relevant to the goals of the National Institute on Aging.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute on Aging (NIA)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
2R01AG011552-15A2
Application #
7988191
Study Section
Social Sciences and Population Studies Study Section (SSPS)
Program Officer
Patmios, Georgeanne E
Project Start
1993-07-21
Project End
2015-08-31
Budget Start
2010-09-30
Budget End
2011-08-31
Support Year
15
Fiscal Year
2010
Total Cost
$279,137
Indirect Cost
Name
University of California Berkeley
Department
Social Sciences
Type
Schools of Arts and Sciences
DUNS #
124726725
City
Berkeley
State
CA
Country
United States
Zip Code
94704
Alexander, Monica J; Kiang, Mathew V; Barbieri, Magali (2018) Trends in Black and White Opioid Mortality in the United States, 1979-2015. Epidemiology 29:707-715
Riffe, Tim; Schöley, Jonas; Villavicencio, Francisco (2017) A unified framework of demographic time. Genus 73:7
Barbieri, Magali; Désesquelles, Aline; Egidi, Viviana et al. (2017) Obesity-related mortality in France, Italy, and the United States: a comparison using multiple cause-of-death analysis. Int J Public Health 62:623-629
Barbieri, Magali; Wilmoth, John R; Shkolnikov, Vladimir M et al. (2015) Data Resource Profile: The Human Mortality Database (HMD). Int J Epidemiol 44:1549-56
Riffe, Tim (2015) The force of mortality by life lived is the force of increment by life left in stationary populations. Demogr Res 32:827-834
Ouellette, Nadine; Barbieri, Magali; Wilmoth, John R (2014) Period-Based Mortality Change: Turning Points in Trends since 1950. Popul Dev Rev 40:77-106
Zureick-Brown, Sarah; Newby, Holly; Chou, Doris et al. (2013) Understanding global trends in maternal mortality. Int Perspect Sex Reprod Health 39:32-41
Prioux, France; Barbieri, Magali (2012) Recent Demographic Developments in France: Relatively Low Mortality at Advanced Ages. Population (Engl Ed) 67:
Barbieri, Magali; Ouellette, Nadine (2012) The Demography of Canada and the United States from the 1980s to the 2000s A Summary of Changes and a Statistical Assessment. Population (Engl Ed) 67:177-280
Wilmoth, John R; Mizoguchi, Nobuko; Oestergaard, Mikkel Z et al. (2012) A New Method for Deriving Global Estimates of Maternal Mortality. Stat Politics Policy 3:

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