The chief aims of this project are to advance understanding of the epidemiology of lymphatic filariasis (LF) transmission by anopheline mosquitoes and its control using annual mass drug administration (MDA) strategies in Papua New Guinea (PNG) and elsewhere, and to develop and apply effective model-based decision support tools for optimizing the design and evaluation of parasite control at the community level. The research will take advantage of past and new field data to be collected by a recently funded NIH ICIDR program, on the impacts of MDA-based strategies, including the addition of vector control to MDA, on filariasis transmission in PNG endemic communities, in order to meet four specific aims: 1) development and validation of a mathematical model specific to describing the population dynamics of LF by anopheline mosquitoes in PNG, 2) estimation and validation of intervention endpoints via the comparative analysis of deterministic versus stochastic versions of the derived model, 3) testing model predictions of the impacts of MDA-based strategies, including MDA plus vector control by the use of Insecticide-Treated Bednets (ITNs), using empirical data on the effects of these interventions collected by the new ICIDR program, and 4) development and implementation of a software tool linking the constructed model and data from endemic sites to facilitate the undertaking of optimal planning, evaluation and management of LF control programs. The proposed research will thus be based on field data available and to be collected by the collaborators on this project on LF interventions, the analyses/modeling of these data and data describing infection dynamics in both the human and vector populations (data on the latter to be collected by conducting vector feeding experiments in this project), and theoretical analyses. The major outputs from this work of vital significance to the global LF elimination program will be: 1) the development of models of LF transmission by anopheline vectors based on various markers of infection, 2) the derivation of endpoints for parasite elimination, 3) the development of model-based evaluation protocols for assessing program effectiveness, 4) the taking of a population dynamic approach to economic assessments of LF control strategies, 5) the dynamic evaluation of including vector control via ITNs to MDA programs, and 6) the construction of a model- and data- integrated software tool for aiding the optimal design and evaluation of LF control programs.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases (NIAID)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
5R01AI069387-04
Application #
7807915
Study Section
Infectious Diseases, Reproductive Health, Asthma and Pulmonary Conditions Study Section (IRAP)
Program Officer
Rao, Malla R
Project Start
2007-04-01
Project End
2012-03-31
Budget Start
2010-04-01
Budget End
2011-03-31
Support Year
4
Fiscal Year
2010
Total Cost
$131,111
Indirect Cost
Name
U of L Imperial Col of Sci/Technlgy/Med
Department
Type
DUNS #
227092590
City
London
State
Country
United Kingdom
Zip Code
SW7 2-AZ
Michael, Edwin; Singh, Brajendra K (2016) Heterogeneous dynamics, robustness/fragility trade-offs, and the eradication of the macroparasitic disease, lymphatic filariasis. BMC Med 14:14
Gambhir, Manoj; Singh, Brajendra K; Michael, Edwin (2015) The Allee effect and elimination of neglected tropical diseases: a mathematical modelling study. Adv Parasitol 87:1-31
Smith, David L; Perkins, T Alex; Reiner Jr, Robert C et al. (2014) Recasting the theory of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission dynamics and control. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 108:185-97
Reiner Jr, Robert C; Perkins, T Alex; Barker, Christopher M et al. (2013) A systematic review of mathematical models of mosquito-borne pathogen transmission: 1970-2010. J R Soc Interface 10:20120921
Waldock, Joanna; Chandra, Nastassya L; Lelieveld, Jos et al. (2013) The role of environmental variables on Aedes albopictus biology and chikungunya epidemiology. Pathog Glob Health 107:224-41
Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin (2013) Mapping, bayesian geostatistical analysis and spatial prediction of lymphatic filariasis prevalence in Africa. PLoS One 8:e71574
Slater, Hannah C; Gambhir, Manoj; Parham, Paul E et al. (2013) Modelling co-infection with malaria and lymphatic filariasis. PLoS Comput Biol 9:e1003096
Singh, Brajendra K; Bockarie, Moses J; Gambhir, Manoj et al. (2013) Sequential modelling of the effects of mass drug treatments on anopheline-mediated lymphatic filariasis infection in Papua New Guinea. PLoS One 8:e67004
Slater, Hannah; Michael, Edwin (2012) Predicting the current and future potential distributions of lymphatic filariasis in Africa using maximum entropy ecological niche modelling. PLoS One 7:e32202
Parham, Paul E; Michael, Edwin (2011) Outbreak properties of epidemic models: the roles of temporal forcing and stochasticity on pathogen invasion dynamics. J Theor Biol 271:1-9

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