Although human-induced habitat disturbances are known to be the primary drivers of numerous infectious disease outbreaks and emergence events, the impact of global anthropogenic change on the wildlife ecology of diseases remains under-studied. Wild birds have also often been implicated in the spread of numerous zoonotic diseases leading to global pandemics. In particular, migrating birds, which have the potential to disseminate diseases over a wide geographic area, are believed to be currently spreading avian influenza viruses across the globe. Influenza A viruses are perpetuated in wild birds that act as a reservoir for the disease, but surprisingly, most of the research focus has been on waterfowl, and almost nothing is known about the prevalence and transmission of influenza among other bird species. Yet, species of terrestrial birds may share the same habitat as poultry, which may make them more effective transmitters of disease to humans than aquatic species such as waterfowl. Evidence suggests that prevalence in other avian species, notably Passeriformes, may have been greatly underestimated. The proposed research will examine the role that North American migratory passerines play in the dispersion of avian influenza strains between breeding sites in Canada and the U.S. and wintering sites in Mexico and Central and South America. By mapping the geographic distribution of viral strains onto migratory pathways, it will be possible to evaluate how anthropogenic environmental changes affect the prevalence and transmission dynamics of avian influenza strains between migratory birds and non-migratory species associated with humans. In addition, patterns of transmission between birds and humans will be examined. The specific goals of this project are to: ? ? 1. Determine the distribution and prevalence of avian influenza strains in Nearctic-Neotropical migratory birds. ? ? 2. Determine the extent to which the distributions of pathogens correlate with identified patterns of migratory connectivity. ? ? 3. Determine whether viral strains are transmitted to humans and assess how their distributions in humans relate to their overall distribution in birds. ? ? 4. Determine, using remote sensing data, the environmental variables that are most closely associated with the prevalence of avian influenza, and develop models that will aid in the prediction of how anthropogenic changes in habitat will affect transmission dynamics (i) between migratory species, (ii) between migratory and resident species, and (Hi) between birds and humans at wintering, breeding ? and migratory stopover sites. ? ? Intellectual Merit: This research will provide some of the first data on the evolutionary relationship of viral diseases in migratory avifauna. Data provided by spatially refined satellite remote sensing will establish which ecological and land use characteristics best correlate with disease prevalence. These results will be used to develop models that will aid in predicting how future anthropogenic ecological changes may affect disease prevalence and transmission. Furthermore, the sampling methodology provides for an extensive avian surveillance network for avian influenza across the Americas. ? ? Broader Impact: To carry out this research, a multidisciplinary team of experts has been assembled with expertise in avian field ecology, molecular genetics, parasitology, epidemiology, ecological modeling, high-throughput laboratory technology and remote sensing. Research and training activities of the research program will help provide young scientists with the cross-disciplinary, integrative training necessary to address complex issues in biodiversity analysis and conservation. The international portions of the research will build on existing relationships to provide greater opportunity for students and professionals from developing countries to receive advanced training leading to increased capacity for high level research and conservation. Ecological factors that contribute significantly to the spread of disease will be used to predict how future land use changes may affect disease outbreaks, thus leading to more informed policy decisions. Finally, we will share our results with public health organizations and the scientific community in a timely fashion in order to maximize the public good. ? ? ?
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