We propose to estimate a series of causal models that account for theoretically interacting relationships among the antecedents and consequences of mutually influential patterns of drug abuse and other deviant adaptations. The strategy will involve the systematic design and estimation of increasingly elaborated causal models for general and specific indicators of patterns of drug abuse and other modes of deviance, self-feelings, subjective distress, role satisfaction, role performance, modes of coping with life stress, modes of adapting to life stress, modes of defending against life stress, specific life events, changes in personal or interpersonal resources, and modes of psychopathology. In the explanatory models of each general or specific outcome all of the remaining variables (measured at earlier time periods and as theoretically indicated) are specified as exogenous or mutually influential endogenous variables. In the estimation of each sequence of models that explains a general or specific outcome. an elaboration strategy is employed such that new variables are added so as to decompose the already observed effects and so as to increase the explanatory power of the model. Later in the project period we also plan to develop and refine the survey instrument, institute tracing procedures, begin sample log preparation, contact old sources used in tracing and finalize the research design for reentry into the field to begin a fifth wave of the panel. During this period, a second generation study can also be planned. Both fifth wave panel data and second generation data will be driven by general theory and derived from past panel designs.
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