The FDA has recently been given broader authority to regulate the manufacture, product standards, marketing, and distribution of any new or existing product made or derived from tobacco in order to protect the public health. There is little research on the effects of marketing and product regulations being considered by the FDA on the sole and dual use of cigarettes and smokeless tobacco. In these situations, modeling provides a "virtual laboratory" to synthesize existing evidence and compare the impact of multiple regulations on US tobacco- related deaths. In this proposal, we conduct statistical analyses of the transitions to and from cigarette and smokeless tobacco use. The statistical analyses will consider the effect of policies on the initiation, cessation, multiple product use and quantity smoked. We will apply the statistical analyses to three existing models, the SimSmoke tobacco control policy model and two natural history of disease models, the Michigan-Fred Hutchinson (Michigan) and the Massachusetts General Hospital Lung Cancer Policy Model (LCPM) models. These models were developed as part of the National Cancer Institute's Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET). A key advance in CISNET has been the collaborative use of multiple models to address a common question using shared inputs, an approach cited for best modeling practices. The SimSmoke, Michigan and LCPM models will be applied to the US. In addition to these models, we will develop SimSmoke models for two states with very different policy structures, Minnesota and Kentucky, to gauge how the effects of FDA regulations may vary depending on state policies. The models will be developed with the capacity and flexibility to incorporate new data (e.g., the PATH study) as it becomes available. The SimSmoke, Michigan and LCPM models will project smokeless tobacco and cigarette use, incorporating multiple product use and the initiation, cessation, and switching between products. We will compare the US population impact of regulations particularly relevant to FDA authority: health warnings, retail point-of-sale restrictions and the regulation of product content. The models will consider the impact of FDA regulations on population smokeless tobacco and cigarette prevalence (in total and by age and gender) and on tobacco- attributable deaths.

Public Health Relevance

For this project, we classify the population of cigarettes and smokeless tobacco users, and conduct statistical analyses of the association of that use with public policies aimed at tobacco control. We use those results to model the impact on public health of proposed Food and Drug Administration regulations, including health warnings on cigarette packages, retailer point-of-sale marketing restrictions and the regulation of product content.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
1R01DA036497-01
Application #
8605678
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZRG1-HDM-Q (54))
Program Officer
Kimmel, Heather L
Project Start
2013-09-30
Project End
2017-08-31
Budget Start
2013-09-30
Budget End
2014-08-31
Support Year
1
Fiscal Year
2013
Total Cost
$590,436
Indirect Cost
$160,218
Name
Georgetown University
Department
Internal Medicine/Medicine
Type
Schools of Medicine
DUNS #
049515844
City
Washington
State
DC
Country
United States
Zip Code
20057
Levy, David T; Meza, Rafael; Zhang, Yian et al. (2016) Gauging the Effect of U.S. Tobacco Control Policies From 1965 Through 2014 Using SimSmoke. Am J Prev Med 50:535-42
Levy, David; Mohlman, Mary Katherine; Zhang, Yian (2016) Estimating the Potential Impact of Tobacco Control Policies on Adverse Maternal and Child Health Outcomes in the United States Using the SimSmoke Tobacco Control Policy Simulation Model. Nicotine Tob Res 18:1240-9
Mohlman, Mary Katherine; Levy, David T (2016) Disparities in Maternal Child and Health Outcomes Attributable to Prenatal Tobacco Use. Matern Child Health J 20:701-9
Amato, Michael S; Boyle, Raymond G; Levy, David (2016) How to define e-cigarette prevalence? Finding clues in the use frequency distribution. Tob Control 25:e24-9
Mays, Darren; Moran, Meghan B; Levy, David T et al. (2016) The Impact of Health Warning Labels for Swedish Snus Advertisements on Young Adults' Snus Perceptions and Behavioral Intentions. Nicotine Tob Res 18:1371-5
Levy, David T; Huang, An-Tsun; Havumaki, Joshua S et al. (2016) The role of public policies in reducing smoking prevalence: results from the Michigan SimSmoke tobacco policy simulation model. Cancer Causes Control 27:615-25
Chang, Joanne T; Levy, David T; Meza, Rafael (2016) Trends and Factors Related to Smokeless Tobacco Use in the United States. Nicotine Tob Res 18:1740-8
Levy, David T; Lindblom, Eric N; Fleischer, Nancy L et al. (2015) Public Health Effects of Restricting Retail Tobacco Product Displays and Ads. Tob Regul Sci 1:61-75
Lowry, Kathryn P; Gazelle, G Scott; Gilmore, Michael E et al. (2015) Personalizing annual lung cancer screening for patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: A decision analysis. Cancer 121:1556-62
Near, Aimee M; Blackman, Kenneth; Currie, Laura M et al. (2014) Sweden SimSmoke: the effect of tobacco control policies on smoking and snus prevalence and attributable deaths. Eur J Public Health 24:451-8

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