The United Nations publishes updated estimates and projections of the populations of all the world's countries, broken down by age and sex. These are widely used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers, for example for climate modeling and for assessing progress towards the Millenium Development Goals. The UN's current projections are deterministic, but assessing uncertainty about population estimates and projections is important for policy-making and other purposes. We propose to develop a fully probabilistic population projection methodology. We will develop methods for probabilistic projection of fertility and mortality, taking account of within-country and between-country correlations. We will develop methods for probabilistic projection of international migration. We will develop methods for probabilistic population projections in countries with generalized sexually transmitted infectious disease epidemics, which require special methods because the demographic impact of such diseases is massive and different from most other diseases, being concentrated among the least vulnerable parts of the population, namely young sexually active adults. We will develop methods for reconstructing past populations with uncertainty from fragmentary data. We will produce publicly available software for implementing the new methods.

Public Health Relevance

Every two years, the United Nations produces projections of the populations of all countries, which are widely used by international organizations, governments, the private sector and researchers. The UN's current projections are deterministic, but assessing uncertainty about future population is important for policy-making and other purposes. We propose to develop a fully probabilistic population methodology which will be applicable to all countries, and will also be useful for assessing global concerns, such as climate change and progress towards the Millenium Development Goals.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health & Human Development (NICHD)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
5R01HD070936-02
Application #
8436205
Study Section
Social Sciences and Population Studies Study Section (SSPS)
Program Officer
Newcomer, Susan
Project Start
2012-03-01
Project End
2017-02-28
Budget Start
2013-03-01
Budget End
2014-02-28
Support Year
2
Fiscal Year
2013
Total Cost
$291,627
Indirect Cost
$94,709
Name
University of Washington
Department
Biostatistics & Other Math Sci
Type
Schools of Arts and Sciences
DUNS #
605799469
City
Seattle
State
WA
Country
United States
Zip Code
98195
Houle, Brian; Clark, Samuel J; Gómez-Olivé, F Xavier et al. (2014) The unfolding counter-transition in rural South Africa: mortality and cause of death, 1994-2009. PLoS One 9:e100420
McParland, Damien; Gormley, Isobel Claire; McCormick, Tyler H et al. (2014) CLUSTERING SOUTH AFRICAN HOUSEHOLDS BASED ON THEIR ASSET STATUS USING LATENT VARIABLE MODELS. Ann Appl Stat 8:747-776
Clark, Samuel J; Houle, Brian (2014) Validation, replication, and sensitivity testing of Heckman-type selection models to adjust estimates of HIV prevalence. PLoS One 9:e112563
Lenkoski, Alex; Eicher, Theo S; Raftery, Adrian E (2014) Two-Stage Bayesian Model Averaging in Endogenous Variable Models. Econom Rev 33:
Raftery, Adrian E; Alkema, Leontine; Gerland, Patrick (2014) Bayesian Population Projections for the United Nations. Stat Sci 29:58-68
Young, William Chad; Raftery, Adrian E; Yeung, Ka Yee (2014) Fast Bayesian inference for gene regulatory networks using ScanBMA. BMC Syst Biol 8:47
Gerland, Patrick; Raftery, Adrian E; Sev?íková, Hana et al. (2014) World population stabilization unlikely this century. Science 346:234-7
Sankoh, Osman; Sharrow, David; Herbst, Kobus et al. (2014) The INDEPTH standard population for low- and middle-income countries, 2013. Glob Health Action 7:23286
Sharrow, David J; Clark, Samuel J; Raftery, Adrian E (2014) Modeling age-specific mortality for countries with generalized HIV epidemics. PLoS One 9:e96447
Fosdick, Bailey K; Raftery, Adrian E (2014) Regional Probabilistic Fertility Forecasting by Modeling Between-Country Correlations. Demogr Res 30:1011-1034

Showing the most recent 10 out of 12 publications