Mathematical models will be developed for disease control through contact investigation, using individual- based simulations. Realistic contact investigation strategies will be analyzed for pathogens that may be transmissible from asymptomatic carriers as well as transmitted prior to symptoms. It will be determined how extensive or how targeted contact investigation should be, and what information should be systematically collected in future contact investigations. The models also include specific questions regarding the effect of behavior change during a contact investigation. Such models will be applied to tuberculosis transmission (because of the availability of contact investigation expertise and the availability of molecular epidemiogical data at the population level). Such models will also be applied in the setting of community-based trials of trachoma elimination, because such trials provide possibly the only experimental human settings wherein we may monitor the reemergence of an infectious disease. Specific testable predictions are outlined in the proposal.

Public Health Relevance

Our project is designed to improve planning for decision making and emergency preparedness by developing specific operational models to explore the best way to control epidemics using contact investigation (or related methods, including ring vaccination), and to improve data collection during contact investigations. We are proposing to use tuberculosis and trachoma in developing empirical case studies.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute of General Medical Sciences (NIGMS)
Type
Research Project--Cooperative Agreements (U01)
Project #
5U01GM087728-02
Application #
8309997
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZGM1-CBCB-3 (MI))
Program Officer
Sheeley, Douglas
Project Start
2011-08-01
Project End
2016-06-30
Budget Start
2012-07-01
Budget End
2013-06-30
Support Year
2
Fiscal Year
2012
Total Cost
$416,610
Indirect Cost
$145,138
Name
University of California San Francisco
Department
Ophthalmology
Type
Schools of Medicine
DUNS #
094878337
City
San Francisco
State
CA
Country
United States
Zip Code
94143
Gao, Daozhou; Lou, Yijun; He, Daihai et al. (2016) Prevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis. Sci Rep 6:28070
Gao, Daozhou; Porco, Travis C; Ruan, Shigui (2016) Coinfection Dynamics of Two Diseases in a Single Host Population. J Math Anal Appl 442:171-188
Getz, Wayne M; Carlson, Colin; Dougherty, Eric et al. (2016) An Agent-Based Model of School Closing in Under-Vacccinated Communities During Measles Outbreaks. Agent Dir Simul Symp 2016:
Gao, Daozhou; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C (2015) Antibiotic resistance as collateral damage: the tragedy of the commons in a two-disease setting. Math Biosci 263:121-32
Liu, Fengchen; Enanoria, Wayne T A; Zipprich, Jennifer et al. (2015) The role of vaccination coverage, individual behaviors, and the public health response in the control of measles epidemics: an agent-based simulation for California. BMC Public Health 15:447
Enanoria, Wayne T A; Worden, Lee; Liu, Fengchen et al. (2015) Evaluating Subcriticality during the Ebola Epidemic in West Africa. PLoS One 10:e0140651
Bellan, Steven E; Pulliam, Juliet R C; Pearson, Carl A B et al. (2015) Statistical power and validity of Ebola vaccine trials in Sierra Leone: a simulation study of trial design and analysis. Lancet Infect Dis 15:703-10
Lietman, Thomas M; Gebre, Teshome; Abdou, Amza et al. (2015) The distribution of the prevalence of ocular chlamydial infection in communities where trachoma is disappearing. Epidemics 11:85-91
Brook, Cara E; Beauclair, Roxanne; Ngwenya, Olina et al. (2015) Spatial heterogeneity in projected leprosy trends in India. Parasit Vectors 8:542
Wang, Xueying; Gao, Daozhou; Wang, Jin (2015) Influence of human behavior on cholera dynamics. Math Biosci 267:41-52

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