Data, Biostatistics & Modeling Core

Cauchemez, Simon

Abstract

The Data, Biostatistics & Modelling Core will act as a repository for data collected during the field-based projects, enabling efficient linking of epidemiological, molecular, immunological and other biological data measured from the participants. Mathematical models will play an integral role: analysing collected data to generate hypotheses which will be verified or falsified against subsequently collected data. In Project 1: Epidemiology, data collected during the initial cross-sectional surveys in Papau New Guinea, Thailand and Cambodia will be used to inform the design of various surveillance strategies. The potential effectiveness of these strategies as interventions to reduce malaria transmission will be simulated using data driven mathematical models of P. vivax and P. falciparum transmission. The most promising strategies will then be taken forward for testing in field trials. Mathematical models will also make an important contribution to Project 3: Relapse. Samples collected during longitudinal studies will be genotyped to provide a detailed understanding of the dynamics of P. vivax and P. falciparum infection. The combination of epidemiological data and genotyping methods will not allow for definitive classification of P. vivax infections into relapses, re-infections, or recrudescences. Instead, this classification will be done probabilistically using a specially designed within-host mathematical model. This model will generate probabilistic phenotypes which can be compared to a wide range of potential genotypic markers.