The goal of this collaborative project is to examine local and remote impacts of regional perturbations in SLCFs (e.g., tropospheric aerosols, tropospheric ozone and methane), that will be key drivers of regional climate changes over the next several decades. There is evidence that the regional climate effects of SLCF emissions can be significant, and this study will enhance understanding of the magnitude, spatial pattern and statistical significance of these influences as well as the processes responsible for these outcomes . Knowledge generated through this study can inform the climate assessment community and decision-makers about the consequences of additional actions to mitigate emissions of SLCFs.
A long control experiment will be undertaken to provide the baseline and statistical basis for significance analysis as well as study regional climate responses to SLCFs and their precursors determined by a series of perturbations from this control state. Using three state-of-the-art Earth System Models (ESMs), robust estimates of the climate and atmospheric composition impacts from regional perturbations in short-lived climate forcers will be studied. Statistical emulators of the relationships between climate forcers and climate impacts following a pattern scaling or statistical emulators approach will be built. These emulators will enable integrated assessment and/or impacts studies under a variety of future emission scenarios, allowing exploration of regional climate impacts under alternative choices of future SLCF emissions.
