Ice storms are powerful winter weather events common to temperate and boreal forest regions worldwide. These storms are capable of catastrophic short-term ecological and socio-economic impacts on forest ecosystems due to branch breakage and toppling of trees under heavy ice loads. Their legacy can also persist over the longer-term through changes in forest productivity and species composition; the virulence of forest pests and pathogens; and increased risk of fire due to greater fire fuel loads. Despite their influential role in shaping forest ecosystems, knowledge of ice storms and their impacts remains limited. The temporally and spatially unpredictable nature of ice storms has largely confined past investigations to case studies following major storms. The severity of ice storms in the northeastern United States, Eastern Canada and elsewhere has heightened the need for greater clarity on the role of these storms in shaping future forests. Scientists at the Hubbard Brook Experimental Forest in NH will conduct a multi-faceted program of research that includes a novel ice storm manipulation experiment, long-term field data, and climate and ecosystem modeling. This research will provide the scientific community, land managers and the concerned public greater insight on the impacts of these powerful, and extreme winter weather events on the ecosystem dynamics of northern hardwood forests.
This integrated program of research is built on a foundation of previous work at Hubbard Brook and the region, including a pilot ice storm experiment conducted in 2012; a significant body of research on the forest ecosystem response to the severe "Ice Storm of 1998"; and a new set of historical climate reconstructions which allow for the quantification of the meteorological conditions that lead to ice storms. Specifically, the investigators will: (i) develop high-resolution global climate model simulations to evaluate the severity, frequency and extent of ice storms under future changing climate; (ii) evaluate short-term (2-3 year) ecosystem response to four different intensities and two frequencies of experimental ice events; (iii) evaluate longer-term (17+ years) response of forest vegetation to the 1998 storm; (iv) use results from the experiment and the long term observations to refine an established forest ecosystem biogeochemical model to simulate ice-storm disturbance; and (v) use the results from the high-resolution climate simulations to drive the improved biogeochemical model to project future ice storm impacts on ecosystem fluxes and pools of carbon and nitrogen in a northern hardwood forest. This research will be integrated with broader impacts involving: (i) the use of sensor technology to engage STEM students with disabilities in the study; (ii) a dialog on the impacts of ice storms with local stakeholders; (iii) the production of a video on the making of an ice storm and relevance to extreme events and climate change; and (iv) undergraduate, graduate and post-doctoral training.
