Water is the essential element upon which societies depend. Its use, distribution and management are major functions of human societies. During times of scarcity or excess, for example as a result of changes in climate, populations can select from a diverse range of possible responses and adaptive strategies. Failure may lead to conflict and societal collapse. In addition to understanding the ways in which societies may try to adapt to excess or limited water supply, it is important to assess the particular climatic, social, political and economic conditions under which a selected strategy will succeed or fail.

This project seeks to identify the full range of cultural responses, including economic and political activity, resource management and engineering strategies, acquisition and conflict, demographic shifts and migration, and to identify thresholds of hydroclimatic shifts that are associated with the probability of adopting particular adaptive response.

Project scientists will develop quantitative models of the interaction between societies and hydroclimate variability over the last millennium for mainland Southeast Asia and the Greater Mekong Basin. This long-term focus will be made possible by two unique data sources: long, annually resolved and drought-sensitive paleoclimate information on drought and river flow from the Greater Mekong Basin (GMB), and the long archaeological and documentary record from urban societies across Southeast Asia. Bringing together these sources of proxy data enables the identification of significant hydroclimatic and sociopolitical events during the last thousand years and will allow the project team to explore societal response to paleoclimate variability and change within the theoretical framework of modeling vulnerability, risk, and adaption in human systems. Two related questions will be investigated:

- What types and scales of drought events in Indochina are of sufficient magnitude to need a social adjustment from the affected human societies? - What factors influence the success of specific responses or strategies to mitigate the consequences of climate variability?

The data collected in this study will provide a unique record spanning several centuries. This has the potential to greatly improve decision making about future management and allocation of water resources in the six countries through which the Mekong River flows, by revealing the range of natural variability and how it is associated with climate variability. Recent significant changes in the flow of the Mekong further emphasize the need to better understand its long-term history and the processes underlying its variability. The water level of the Mekong exceeded its highest recorded level during the most recent flooding in August 2008. Whether such extremes are consequences of global warming or the inevitable natural swings of dry-wet periods is a question of both public and scientific importance.

This project directly involves undergraduate, graduate and post-graduate level research in the USA, and in the GMB. Students from Columbia University?s internship program will gain experience in an international research initiative with applications in both the social and physical sciences. Graduate students will work on social science and policy problems related to conflict and water. Project participants from Vietnam and Thailand will supervise graduate students from the Greater Mekong region, to develop climate-related events timelines from the various chronicles from the region, for use by project scientists. For this purpose the Southeast Asia Paleo Environments Consortium (SAPEC) was organized in order to provide the framework for training and educational opportunities for scientists and students throughout the Greater Mekong region who have an interest in long-term perspectives on tropical environments and sustainable development. Capacity building efforts will also be achieved through engagement and collaboration with regional scientific partners in Thailand, Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia. Regional workshops will include the project team, social and physical science collaborators from the region, and students from both Southeast Asia and Columbia University. These workshops will provide an opportunity to disseminate the results of this project, and to provide a focal point for additional capacity building and outreach.

Agency
National Science Foundation (NSF)
Institute
Directorate for Geosciences (GEO)
Type
Standard Grant (Standard)
Application #
0908971
Program Officer
Sarah L. Ruth
Project Start
Project End
Budget Start
2009-10-01
Budget End
2014-09-30
Support Year
Fiscal Year
2009
Total Cost
$1,401,351
Indirect Cost
Name
Columbia University
Department
Type
DUNS #
City
New York
State
NY
Country
United States
Zip Code
10027