General descriptive studies (00350): Breast cancer mortality rates have been declining among women in many western countries since the late 1980s. Women diagnosed before age 70 have experienced declining death rates within five years of diagnosis, even for metastatic disease. Tumor size at diagnosis in 2010 is smaller on average than seen before 1985, but data show that smaller tumor size within each stage at diagnosis explains only a small proportion of the improvement in breast cancer survival in women under the age of 70. However, changes in tumor size account for about half of the improvements for women diagnosed with localized breast cancer at age 70 and older. Projections show that the total number of new breast cancers is expected to rise by 50% in the United States from 283 000 in 2011 to 441 000 in 2030. The proportion of all new case patients age 70 to 84 years is expected to increase while the proportion ages 50 to 69 years is expected to decrease from 54.7% to 43.6%. The proportion of ER-positive invasive cancers is expected to remain nearly the same at 62.6%, whereas the proportion of ER-negative cancers is expected to decrease from 16.8% to 8.6%. Hormone receptor (HR) negative breast cancers are relatively more common in low-risk than high-risk countries and/or populations. However, the absolute variations between these different populations are not well established. Two unique population-based resources with molecular data were used to compare incidence rates for breast cancer subtypes between a low-risk Asian population in Malaysia and high-risk non-Hispanic white population in the National Cancer Institutes surveillance, epidemiology, and end results 18 registries database (SEER 18). Notably, there was a greater absolute risk for all subtypes of breast cancer in United States. Previous reports also have suggested that female breast cancer is associated with earlier ages at onset among Asian than Western populations. However, most studies utilized cross-sectional analyses that may be confounded by calendar-period and/or birth cohort effects. Invasive female breast cancer data (19882009) were obtained from cancer registries in China, Hong Kong, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and the United States. Longitudinal age-specific rates were proportional (or similar) among all Asian countries and the United States with incidence rates rising continuously until age 80 years. The extrapolated estimates for the most recent cohorts in some Asian countries actually showed later ages at onset than in the United States. Indeed, the Asian breast cancer rates in recent generations are even surpassing the historically high rates in the United States. Younger ages at diagnosis for blacks compared with whites have been reported for several cancer types. However, the US black population is younger than the white population, which may bias age comparisons that do not account for the general populations at risk. Non-Hispanic blacks and non-Hispanic whites were analyzed the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for the year 2010. Most differences between blacks and whites in the age at cancer diagnosis were small. Incidence rates of testicular cancer in Northern European and North American countries have been widely reported, whereas rates in other populations, such as Eastern Europe, Central/South America, Asia, and Africa, have been less frequently evaluated. Testicular cancer incidences rates overall and by histologic type by calendar time and birth cohort for selected global populations 1973-2007 were assessed. Incidence rates of testicular cancer increased between 1973-1977 and 2003-2007 in most populations evaluated worldwide. Reasons for the rising incidence rates among European and American populations remain unexplained. Testicular germ cell tumors (TGCT) are the most commonly occurring cancers among men between the ages of 15 and 44 years in the United States (U.S.). The incidence of TGCT was highest among non-Hispanic white men (6.97 per 100,000 man-years) followed in declining order by rates among American Indian/Alaska Native (4.66), Hispanic white (4.11), Asian/Pacific Islander (1.95), and black men (1.20). However, while non-Hispanic white men in the U.S. continue to have the highest incidence of TGCT, they present at more favorable stages of disease and with smaller tumors than do other men. Esophageal cancer is a malignant tumor that develops in the inner layers of the mucosa (lining) of the esophagus. It is the 8th most common cancer worldwide and is known for its marked variation by geographic region, ethnicity and gender. The two main types of esophageal cancer, squamous cell carcinoma and adenocarcinoma, share a poor prognosis, but have distinct histopathological and epidemiologic profiles including: global incidence, mortality and survival patterns; known and suspected risk factors and protective factors; signs and symptoms of disease; common procedures for diagnosis and treatment, and public health significance. Although anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) and adenocarcinoma (ADC) are generally combined in cancer surveillance, their etiologies likely differ. Women have higher rates of SCC (rate ratio [RR]=1.45; 95%CI 1.40-1.50) and lower rates of ADC (RR=0.68; 95%CI 0.62-0.74) and squamous carcinoma in situ (CIS) (RR=0.36; 95%CI 0.34-0.38) than men. Blacks had lower rates of SCC (RR=0.82; 95%CI 0.77-0.87) and CIS (RR=0.90; 95%CI 0.83-0.98) than non-Hispanic whites, but higher rates of ADC (RR=1.48; 95%CI 1.29-1.70). Rates of anal SCC and CIS have increased strongly over time, in contrast to rates of anal ADC, similar to trends observed for rectal SCC and ADC. In sum, anal SCC and ADC likely have different etiologies, but may have similar etiologies to rectal SCC and ADC, respectively. Many malignancies, including multiple myeloma and its precursor, monoclonal gammopathy of unknown significant, are associated with an elevated risk of thromboembolism. There is limited information on the risk of thrombosis in patients with Waldenstrm macroglobulinemia (WM) and lymphoplasmacytic lymphoma (LPL). Information on occurrence of venous and arterial thrombosis after the diagnosis of WM/LPL was obtained through the centralized Swedish Patient Register, with follow-up to 2006. Patients with WM/LPL had a significantly increased risk of venous thrombosis and the highest risk was observed during the first year following diagnosis (HR = 4.0, 95% CI 2.5-6.4). The risk was significantly elevated 5 (HR = 2.3, 95% CI 1.7-3.0) and 10 years after diagnosis (HR = 2.0, 95% CI 1.6-2.5). The potential role of thromboprophylaxis in WM/LPL, especially during the first year after diagnosis and in patients treated with thrombogenic agents, needs to be assessed to further improve outcome in WM/LPL patients. Multiple myeloma (MM) is the second most common hematological malignancy in the United States (US). No study has made detailed forecasts of future MM incidence or burden in the US by age group, race/ethnicity, and sex. Forecasts were constructed for 2011 through 2034 using 1992-2011 cancer incidence data from the National Cancer Institutes Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results Program, a novel age-period-cohort forecasting model, and population projections from the US Census Bureau. Though the MM incidence per 100,000 person-years will continue to be quite stable during 2011 2034, because of demographic changes, the total number of new MM cases per year (burden) is expected to increase by 65% in men and 61% in women. Almost all of these increases will occur among older Americans ages 64 84 years. The percentage of minority cases is also expected to increase, from 29% to 37% among men and from 34% to 38% among women.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Cancer Institute (NCI)
Type
Investigator-Initiated Intramural Research Projects (ZIA)
Project #
1ZIACP010183-13
Application #
9154204
Study Section
Project Start
Project End
Budget Start
Budget End
Support Year
13
Fiscal Year
2015
Total Cost
Indirect Cost
Name
Cancer Epidemiology and Genetics
Department
Type
DUNS #
City
State
Country
Zip Code
Davis Lynn, Brittny C; Rosenberg, Philip S; Anderson, William F et al. (2018) Black-White Breast Cancer Incidence Trends: Effects of Ethnicity. J Natl Cancer Inst :
Kelly, Scott P; Anderson, William F; Rosenberg, Philip S et al. (2018) Past, Current, and Future Incidence Rates and Burden of Metastatic Prostate Cancer in the United States. Eur Urol Focus 4:121-127
Mullooly, Maeve; Murphy, Jeanne; Gierach, Gretchen L et al. (2017) Divergent oestrogen receptor-specific breast cancer trends in Ireland (2004-2013): Amassing data from independent Western populations provide etiologic clues. Eur J Cancer 86:326-333
Karami, Sara; Colt, Joanne S; Stewart, Patricia A et al. (2016) A case-control study of occupational sunlight exposure and renal cancer risk. Int J Cancer 138:1626-33
Sung, Hyuna; Rosenberg, Philip S; Chen, Wan-Qing et al. (2016) The impact of breast cancer-specific birth cohort effects among younger and older Chinese populations. Int J Cancer 139:527-34
Rosenberg, Philip S; Barker, Kimberly A; Anderson, William F (2015) Future distribution of multiple myeloma in the United States by sex, age, and race/ethnicity. Blood 125:410-2
Richardson, Blakely S; Anderson, William F; Barnholtz-Sloan, Jill S et al. (2014) The age-specific effect modification of male sex for ulcerated cutaneous melanoma. JAMA Dermatol 150:522-5
Banegas, Matthew P; Tao, Li; Altekruse, Sean et al. (2014) Heterogeneity of breast cancer subtypes and survival among Hispanic women with invasive breast cancer in California. Breast Cancer Res Treat 144:625-34
Anderson, William F; Rosenberg, Philip S; Prat, Aleix et al. (2014) How many etiological subtypes of breast cancer: two, three, four, or more? J Natl Cancer Inst 106:
Daugherty, Sarah E; Lacey Jr, James V; Pfeiffer, Ruth M et al. (2013) Reproductive factors and menopausal hormone therapy and bladder cancer risk in the NIH-AARP Diet and Health Study. Int J Cancer 133:462-72

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