The U.S. Census Bureau estimates that 34.9 million Americans live in hurricane prone areas along the East Coast. With the U.S. experiencing a natural period of heightened tropical cyclone activity combining with the possible effects of global climate change, now more than ever is the time to communicate hurricane warnings and associated risks effectively. In addition, there is growing concern that decision makers, emergency managers, and the public are misinterpreting visual displays of critical hurricane track forecasts, called the "cone of uncertainty," which may lead to ill-informed decisions. Despite improved accuracy of hurricane forecasts and warnings, if the visual risk communication is ineffective, then people will not understand them.
The necessity of examining hurricane warning systems has resulted in at least two recent reports: Social Science Research Needs for the Hurricane Forecast and Warning System, as well as Hurricane Warning: The Critical Need for a National Hurricane Research Initiative, a report written by the National Science Board Task Force on Hurricane Science and Engineering, Committee on Programs and Plans.
This research includes two main parts, both relying heavily on interviews, and each having a real-time observation trip associated with it. First, there must be a better understanding of the purpose for and creation of the graphic. Interviews with forecasters and other hurricane specialists will provide the foundation for what they believe the public should understand. In addition, a visit to the National Hurricane Center during a possible hurricane threat to the US will provide real-time observation of how graphics are created and disseminated to the public. Second, despite empirical evidence suggesting public confusion regarding the graphic, no one has yet collected data on people's perception and understanding of the graphic. Interviews with members of the public will allow the development of such information. This information will enable comparison between the forecasters' intent and public interpretation of the graphic.
This study contributes to the intersection of meteorology and visual communication. This study will explore the possibilities of maintaining the integrity of the meteorological science while integrating visual perception theories and public views with the long-term goal of creating a graphic that meets both needs.
