This project will contribute toward increased understanding of surface weather, accuracy of forecasts and reduction of risk to life and property. In particular, it will lead to improved forecasting of jet strength, precipitation bands, and cyclone intensity. The research will enhance understanding of the dynamics responsible for stratosphere / troposphere exchange, hence the distribution of climatologically important trace constituents. The website focusing on inertial instability in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS) will enhance public knowledge of weather systems.
Inertial instability can play a significant role in facilitating stratosphere troposphere exchange (STE) in midlatitude cyclone. A stratospheric intrusion can occur by poleward motion in the uppermost troposphere (accelerated by inertial instability), overriding a thin layer of stratospheric air. Inertial instability also plays a key role in poleward momentum surges and jet flare-ups. It has also been found that inertial instability plays a key role in STE associated with tropical cyclones.
Further modeling and observational studies of the role of inertial instability in UTLS near both midlatitude and tropical cyclones will be undertaken in this study. The role of inertial instability in STE, both around the periphery and near convective maxima, with a focus on the relationship between convective potential vorticity dipoles and inertial instability in the UTLS, will be examined. The climatological occurrence and distribution of inertial instability in the UTLS and its relation to other features of midlatitude cyclones will be calculated using 37 years (1979-2015) of Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA) data. Composite analysis will be used to relate the locations of inertial instability to other aspects of cyclones, including jet locations and air mass pathways. Products will include charts and sections depicting the location and occurrence of inertial instability in the context of transport pathways.
