The goal of this research program is to examine the role that "thought confidence" plays in determining how people form their opinions and other judgments. After decades of research on persuasion in which the number and valence of the primary thoughts people generate to a message have been seen as the key to thoughtful persuasion, more recent work by the PI holds that generating thoughts is not sufficient for them to have an impact on judgment. Rather, people must also have confidence in their thoughts. The extent of thought confidence affects whether people use their thoughts or not. That is, the extent of confidence determines whether people translate their individual thoughts into more general judgments or evaluations that in turn guide behavior. Given how essential thought confidence is in determining whether thoughts are used, it is important to know from where people get their sense of confidence or doubt in their thoughts. This project includes two distinct lines of research. The first set of studies examines how learning that a proposal is supported by a majority of other people or only a minority of others affects thought confidence and persuasion. The second set of studies examines the role of thought confidence in increasing or decreasing attitudinal ambivalence. Ambivalence often freezes people into inaction. Although traditional approaches to reducing ambivalence involve trying to change people's perceptions of the positive or negative aspects of the attitude object, the current approach focuses on affecting confidence in these evaluations. This research has implications for the psychology of deception as well as the deterrence of terrorists. In each case, understanding the role of confidence in judgment is critical. In the case of deception, the issue is the extent to which people can have confidence in lies that they tell and come to believe as true. In the case of terrorists, the issue is how people come to have confidence in radical beliefs - in the most extreme case having so much trust in an idea that they will commit suicide to support it. Thus, the current research has the potential to contribute to understanding issues of national importance.
