The research objective of this Faculty Early Career Development (CAREER) project is to research: (1) accurate and efficient approximations that facilitate the modeling of probabilistic dependence, (2) the degree of dependence that must be captured in order to make high quality decisions, and (3) the implications of ignoring dependence in important decision problems. These new methods will be tested via collaborations with decision scientists in pharmaceutical companies and geoscientists focused on climate change. This research will be integrated with education through the following activities: (1) teaching decision skills directly to middle and high school students, while training middle and high school teachers in the fundamentals of decision making, (2) development of a new undergraduate certificate at The University of Texas (UT) focused on decision making under uncertainty, and (3) inclusion of select undergraduate students in research.
If successful, the results of this research will transform our ability to effectively incorporate probabilistic dependence in important decision models. This new capability should improve decision making. For example, improving our ability to model dependencies in the climate system will result in improved climate and energy policies, which have broad impacts. In the area of drug discovery and development, the ability to effectively incorporate probabilistic dependence will help pharmaceutical companies properly sequence their development processes. The project's educational plan is designed to fundamentally alter education by organizing curricula around a decision-making framework. If successful, these educational innovations will transform engineering education, with important implications for society.
