Climate change policy represents a global, collective decision-making problem unprecedented in scale and complexity. Scientific methods for evaluating international policy, however, have tended to follow two separate lines of analysis, neither of which is fully instructive for real world settings. One approach, typically referred to as Integrated Assessment Modeling, is largely pursued by economists and decision theorists and focuses on assessment of the long-term costs and benefits of various greenhouse gas reduction scenarios. A second approach originates with game theorists and focuses on evaluating international structures and conditions likely to lead to effective cooperative climate agreements. Both types of analysis rely heavily on the simplifying assumption that national economies are orchestrated by perfectly rational central planners who have the information and ability to make optimal decisions despite the presence of pervasive uncertainty about mitigation costs, climate damages, and future states of the economy. In reality, the outcome and implementation of any international climate agreement will be the net result of a complex interplay of stakeholders at multiple levels who have limited ability to make optimal decisions and have differing beliefs, power, and incentive structures. Therefore, it is likely that the existing assessment tools overlook some important factors that may enable or constrain effective climate policy formation.
This project will develop of new tool for international climate policy analysis based on agent-based modeling (ABM) that facilitates a more realistic and simultaneous treatment of the diverse forces which influence multi-party decisions. The model will represent both the international climate negotiation process, as well as the key dynamics of domestic economies relevant to energy and climate change. Some key questions to be explored with our model include: Are there patterns of innovation, adaptation, or climate damages that emerge from an ABM representation of an economy that are obscured by conventional assessments? Does an ABM that accounts for heterogeneity of beliefs and incentives at the national level and heterogeneity of power and vulnerability at the international level explain the negotiation outcomes historically observed? Does the design of effective international negotiation structures depend on the degree of heterogeneity occurring either between or within national economies?
This research will help inform stakeholders -- including citizens, interest groups, businesses, governments, and international organizations -- so that they better understand the opportunities in a globally connected network of decision makers.
Normal 0 false false false EN-US X-NONE X-NONE The intellectual merit of the project consisted of the development of a novel model for considering the interactions between international climate treaty negotiation and the domestic linked energy-economic system. The model has been used to explore the influences of technological change, alternative negotiation structures, and diverse policy options on the ability of nations to address climate change. Among the key results is the finding that, if the U.S. were to implement a carbon tax, how the government spends the revenue generated by the tax is more important for future carbon emissions and economic growth than the emissions deterrent impact of the tax. We also find that a straightforward algorithm for assisted mediation of climate treaty negotiation can substantially shorten the time it takes for nations to reach an agreement and can improve the outcome for all parties. Regarding broader impacts, the project has produced 12 peer-reviewed journal articles and 2 peer-reviewed book chapters. The project also yielded 35 scientific talks, workshop contributions, or seminars presented in a wide variety of international venues. We generated 11 popular press articles, 5 TV/radio interviews, and 12 newspaper interviews. As a result of the project, the research team developed 18 new lectures for both undergraduate and graduate students in 11 distinct educational programs at 4 different universities. The project supported two PhD student theses and provided research opportunities for one MS and three undergraduate students, including two females participating in Dartmouth’s Women in Science Project (WISP). Members of our team participated in COP 16 (Cancun), COP 17 (Durban), IPCC Working Group II, and the UN High-Level Global Sustainability Panel. We presented our project to policy-makers in a variety of settings, including the OECD Directorate for Science, Technology and Industry and the USEPA/DOE Workshop on Modeling Climate Change Impacts and Economic Damages.
