This project seeks to provide an explanatory framework for understanding post-election violence (PEV) in Africa. Not only has PEV received scant theoretical and empirical treatment in the political violence and internal conflict literatures, electoral violence is consistently recurring, happening at a relatively constant rate for the past two decades even as war is on the decline. While the scant literature on electoral violence in Africa (primarily single-case studies) has shed light on the dynamics involved in particular contexts, still missing are: a systematic explanation for the occurrence of PEV across Africa, why PEV occurs in certain contexts and not in others, and a theoretically grounded general account of PEV on the continent. This project aims to provide these missing aspects.
Intellectual Merit: Theoretically, this research will provide an ideal-typical model that explains PEV in Africa to be subsequently deployed in the analysis of individual cases. Empirically, using a multi-method research design, it will provide aggregate quantitative analysis of PEV in Africa as well as in-depth case studies of three cases - two with and one without PEV. These are recent presidential elections in Ghana (2012), Nigeria (2011) and Cote d'Ivoire (2010). The case studies involve field research using semi-structured expert/elite interviews, process tracing, and discourse analysis. This research will enhance security studies by delineating the mechanisms and processes involved in PEV with policy implications for mitigating post-election violence in Africa and other newly democratizing states.
Broader Impacts: PEV has a destabilizing effect, results in loss of lives and property, and at its most extreme, leads to civil war. The gap in the literature identified above will be filled by focusing on the following questions. What accounts for the incidence of PEV? What are the mechanisms and processes involved? How can the variance in the intensity of violence seen in PEV be explained? Why does PEV degenerate into civil war? Successfully answering these questions will provide a comprehensive understanding of PEV that is crucial to coming up with effective measures for preventing and resolving PEV, with broader implications for international security, the practice and policymaking on conflict management and peacebuilding, not just in Africa but also in other newly democratizing societies. Since the U.S. as a preeminent global power is enmeshed in international security it also has national security implications as the U.S. may intervene in cases of PEV that degenerate into civil war.
