What sparks sudden migrant outflows? In 2015, more than a million migrants braved the Mediterranean Sea and other routes seeking asylum in Europe. Yet, conditions of violence in Syria were not new, dating at least to the start of the civil war in 2011. Moreover, not just Syrians arrived on European shores; the crisis has attracted migrants from countries with long-standing, largely unchanged conflicts and poverty. This project explores how sudden waves of migration emerge from persistent conditions. In contrast to dominant explanations centered on changes in violence in sending countries, the PIs propose a theory rooted in migrants' expectations about their reception in host countries. Initial signals that migrants will be welcomed, especially if they are perceived to be part of a refugee crisis, lead others to follow, even without any changes in violence or economic conditions in their home country. They also examine alternative explanations that emphasize the role of social networks and smugglers in migrant waves. By identifying the factors that cause and perpetuate migrant waves, this project will help policymakers and humanitarian aid organizations better prepare for future waves and better allocate resources to the current crisis.
Understanding the factors that begin and perpetuate migrant waves requires real-time information on migrants' experiences, knowledge, and expectations about the policy environment. The PIs conduct a survey of 1000 migrants in port cities in Turkey and Greece, where migrants have just crossed into or plan to depart for Europe. The PIs use local refugee registries and translate the survey into several languages to ensure that the survey is representative of the diverse migrants traveling toward Europe. The PIs ask migrants directly about the conditions under which they left their homes, as well as their decision-making process. While most theories suggest that direct threats lead migrants to abandon their homes, the PIs propose that migrants will not report such changes. Instead, the choices of others in their community and perceptions of policy conditions should strongly influence their decisions to migrate. The PIs also use an embedded survey experiment to test how information about the size of the migrant wave, its composition, and the policy environment influence migrants' decisions. This original survey data on the views of migrants themselves will provide important insight into the largest refugee crisis since World War II.
