9321048 Heckman This project has four interrelated objectives: (1) To complete an evaluation of the Job Training Partnership Act (JTPA) begun under the previous NSF grant. The project studies the self-selection bias (if any) that characterizes the differences in earnings, employment and wages between participants and non-participants with an eye toward developing rigorously, economically motivated program evaluation strategies using readily available non- experimental data. (2) The study exploits unique data to develop empirically-based models of incentives in organizations and the responses of organizations to externally mandated performance standards. This portion of the project provides new information on the economics of bureaucracies and the responses of program managers to incentives. (3) The study develops and applies econometric methods for estimating dynamic models of choices among alternative possibilities, and the rewards from these choices. (4) The study considers the empirical, economic and econometric foundations of the case for social experiments. Both theoretical and empirical studies will be conducted on the benefits and limitations of social experiments. The responses of training centers to randomization will be investigated. One goal of the project is to produce a book on the rigorous evaluation of social programs with an emphasis on manpower training programs.
