The identification of age-period-cohort effects in alcohol and drug outcomes provides substantially more information regarding how alcohol and drug use change over time compared to the traditional population rate by year. Further, information on attitudes toward substance use such as disapproval can be analyzed in the age-period-cohort framework to provide information about group-level mechanisms of risk through which lifetime initiation of substance use changes. Unfortunately, age-period-cohort analysis remains an underutilized methodological tool due to the limitations of pre-existing methods to reliably estimate effects. Recently, however, new methodological tools have been developed focusing on aspects of the APC model unaffected by model identification problems, motivating a multi-disciplinary resurgence of interest in APC analysis. The overarching aim of the present research is to apply recent methodological advancements in statistical age-period-cohort effect estimation to quantify the combination of age, period, and cohort effects that give rise to changes in alcohol and drug use as well as disapproval of use in adolescence over time. This research will integrate age-period-cohort effects in substance use with age-period-cohort effects in attitudes toward use to assess heterogeneity in these two related but potentially diverse constructs. Data will be drawn from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) study, a nationally-representative yearly cross-sectional survey of adolescents in the U.S. from 1976 to the present. A unique feature of the MTF data is the standardization of sampling design and measures across 30 years of data collection. This work will focus specifically on estimating age-period-cohort effects in the lifetime initiation of three substances (alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana) and also on estimating age-period-cohort effects in disapproval of alcohol, tobacco, and marijuana.

Public Health Relevance

The present research has implications for public health policy and continued research. Information regarding the similarities and differences between age-period-cohort effects in substance use and disapproval can provide a foundation for productive hypothesis testing. Results of the present study will suggest population- level targets for prevention and intervention with adolescents, as the presence of age, period, and/or cohort effects can provide an initial characterization of effective interventions in populations.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute on Drug Abuse (NIDA)
Type
Predoctoral Individual National Research Service Award (F31)
Project #
1F31DA026689-01
Application #
7668127
Study Section
Special Emphasis Panel (ZRG1-F16-Z (20))
Program Officer
Lopez, Marsha
Project Start
2009-07-01
Project End
2010-05-30
Budget Start
2009-07-01
Budget End
2010-05-30
Support Year
1
Fiscal Year
2009
Total Cost
$25,325
Indirect Cost
Name
Columbia University (N.Y.)
Department
Public Health & Prev Medicine
Type
Schools of Public Health
DUNS #
621889815
City
New York
State
NY
Country
United States
Zip Code
10032
Keyes, Katherine M; Miech, Richard (2013) Age, period, and cohort effects in heavy episodic drinking in the US from 1985 to 2009. Drug Alcohol Depend 132:140-8
Eaton, Nicholas R; Krueger, Robert F; Markon, Kristian E et al. (2013) The structure and predictive validity of the internalizing disorders. J Abnorm Psychol 122:86-92
Fenton, M C; Geier, T; Keyes, K et al. (2013) Combined role of childhood maltreatment, family history, and gender in the risk for alcohol dependence. Psychol Med 43:1045-57
Fenton, Miriam C; Keyes, Katherine; Geier, Timothy et al. (2012) Psychiatric comorbidity and the persistence of drug use disorders in the United States. Addiction 107:599-609
Keyes, K M; Hatzenbuehler, M L; Grant, Bridget F et al. (2012) Stress and alcohol: epidemiologic evidence. Alcohol Res 34:391-400
Eaton, Nicholas R; Keyes, Katherine M; Krueger, Robert F et al. (2012) An invariant dimensional liability model of gender differences in mental disorder prevalence: evidence from a national sample. J Abnorm Psychol 121:282-8
Keyes, Katherine M; Eaton, Nicholas R; Krueger, Robert F et al. (2012) Childhood maltreatment and the structure of common psychiatric disorders. Br J Psychiatry 200:107-15
Keyes, Katherine M; Schulenberg, John E; O'Malley, Patrick M et al. (2012) Birth cohort effects on adolescent alcohol use: the influence of social norms from 1976 to 2007. Arch Gen Psychiatry 69:1304-13
Shmulewitz, Dvora; Keyes, Katherine M; Wall, Melanie M et al. (2011) Nicotine dependence, abuse and craving: dimensionality in an Israeli sample. Addiction 106:1675-86
Keyes, K M; Barnes, David M; Bates, L M (2011) Stress, coping, and depression: testing a new hypothesis in a prospectively studied general population sample of U.S.-born Whites and Blacks. Soc Sci Med 72:650-9

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