The enormous response over the 1980s to the advent of IRAs and 401(k) plans suggests that such programs could have a very substantial effect on the economic status of future elderly Americans. The proposal is to extend our work on the net saving effect of these programs to consider how the changing role of targeted personal retirement saving plans will affect the financial status of future elderly. New data sources permits us to evaluate the relationships among all modes of retirement support, with comprehensive information on all forms of wealth and with detailed data on earning histories and other individual characteristic. And, there is now ten years of experience with personal retirement saving plans and some instances ten years of contributions to these plans. The general goal is to analyze the accumulation of personal financial wealth, housing wealth, pension assets, and Social Security wealth, with particular emphasis on how targeted retirement savings programs such as 401(k) plans affect and are affected by other components of the household balance sheet. We will consider asset accumulation before retirement, financial decisions at retirement-- for example annuitization of pension benefits-- as well as asset decumulation after retirement. Financial decisions in each of these three stages have a direct bearing on the financial status of current and future elderly Americans. There are five specific aims: (1) To document the changing distribution of wealth levels and wealth compositions for older Americans, particularly with respect to the relative importance of personal retirement saving, housing wealth, pensions, and Social Security wealth. (2) To extend our previous analysis of the interaction between saving in 401(k) saving and other elements of household balance sheet, particularly private pension plan asset and Social Security wealth. (3) To document the post-retirement decumulation of personal retirement assets and other bequeathable wealth. (4) To summarize the implications of personal retirement saving by simulating their effect on the financial status of the elderly at and after retirement. (5) To explore the relationship between (i) evidence from household surveys suggesting that 401(k) saving did not displace other asset accumulation, and (ii) evidence from aggregate time series suggesting that the personal saving rate declined during the period when 401(k) contributions rose most rapidly.
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