Total mortality in the U.S. elderly population has changed significantly due to declines in heart disease, and stroke and, recently, (> 1990) cancer mortality. Research suggests that, even at advanced ages, morbidity and disability can be modified significantly before death - and influence the diseases responsible for death --through lifestyle changes, cohort experiences, changes in medical technology, and changes in health care access. We will examine temporal and cohort changes in the causes of mortality using several types of data - each with characteristic strengths. One type, multiple cause of death data, will soon be available for a long enough period of time (1968 to 2000) that cohort differences in the multiple conditions reported at death can be examined. Data, from longitudinal population studies, provide information on the temporal relation of morbidity and disability changes for lengthy periods prior to death. This adds a crucial intra-individual temporal dimension to analyses of human failure processes at late ages. To analyze these data we will use statistical estimation strategies designed for analyzing combinations of longitudinal demographic and health survey data sets - each with different statistical and measurement properties. With these data and methods we will examine hypotheses about recent (1990-2000) U.S. declines in overall cancer mortality, i.e., what ages does it affect most, which types of cancer changed most, were changes due to prevention or improvements in treatment, how are estimates of cancer mortality declines affected by trends in circulatory disease death? We will also examine hypotheses about changes in the age dominance of specific conditions, e.g., what types of circulatory disease, and co-conditions, emerge at, say, ages 65 to 75 vs. ages 85+. This will produce insights into changes in human mortality processes at late ages where growing numbers of death will occur in the future as the U.S. population ages and the numbers of nonagenarians and centenarians increase. This is important in forecasting life expectancy and the growth of he extreme elderly U.S. population.

Agency
National Institute of Health (NIH)
Institute
National Institute on Aging (NIA)
Type
Research Project (R01)
Project #
5R01AG001159-31
Application #
7209021
Study Section
Social Sciences, Nursing, Epidemiology and Methods 4 (SNEM)
Program Officer
Patmios, Georgeanne E
Project Start
1980-04-01
Project End
2009-03-31
Budget Start
2007-06-01
Budget End
2009-03-31
Support Year
31
Fiscal Year
2007
Total Cost
$255,536
Indirect Cost
Name
Duke University
Department
Social Sciences
Type
Schools of Arts and Sciences
DUNS #
044387793
City
Durham
State
NC
Country
United States
Zip Code
27705
Manton, Kenneth G; Gu, Xi-Liang; Lowrimore, Gene et al. (2009) NIH funding trajectories and their correlations with US health dynamics from 1950 to 2004. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 106:10981-6
Manton, Kenneth G; Gu, XiLiang; Lowrimore, Gene R (2008) Cohort changes in active life expectancy in the U.S. elderly population: experience from the 1982-2004 National Long-Term Care Survey. J Gerontol B Psychol Sci Soc Sci 63:S269-81
Manton, Kenneth G; Lowrimore, Gene R; Ullian, Arthur D et al. (2007) Labor force participation and human capital increases in an aging population and implications for U.S. research investment. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 104:10802-7
Manton, Kenneth G; Lamb, Vicki L; Gu, XiLiang (2007) Medicare cost effects of recent U.S. disability trends in the elderly: future implications. J Aging Health 19:359-81
Manton, Kenneth G; Gu, XiLiang; Lamb, Vicki L (2006) Change in chronic disability from 1982 to 2004/2005 as measured by long-term changes in function and health in the U.S. elderly population. Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A 103:18374-9
Manton, K G; Akushevich, I; Kulminski, A (2004) Demographic analysis and modeling of human populations exposed to ionizing radiation. Front Biosci 9:2144-52
Manton, Kenneth G; Volovik, Serge; Kulminski, Alexander (2004) ROS effects on neurodegeneration in Alzheimer's disease and related disorders: on environmental stresses of ionizing radiation. Curr Alzheimer Res 1:277-93
Zuev, S M; Yashin, A I; Manton, K G et al. (2000) Vitality index in survival modeling: how physiological aging influences mortality. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 55:B10-9
Manton, K G; Stallard, E; Corder, L (1997) Education-specific estimates of life expectancy and age-specific disability in the U.S. elderly population: 1982 to 1991. J Aging Health 9:419-50
Manton, K G; Stallard, E (1996) Longevity in the united states: age and sex-specific evidence on life span limits from mortality patterns 1960-1990. J Gerontol A Biol Sci Med Sci 51:B362-75

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