This proposal seeks support for completion of analyses of the National Comorbidity Survey (NCS) and the preparation of a series of papers and a book reporting the results of these analyses. There would be five main types of analyses over the renewal period. (1) Models would be estimated to study the effects of earlier disorders and psychosocial risk factors on first onset of all NCS disorders. (2) We would estimate models studying the separate and joint effects of comorbidity and psychosocial risk factors on the course of each NCS disorder. (3) We would use data on current prevalence to study episode comorbidity. (4) Consequences of comorbidity would be studied using two types of models. The first would examine the lifetime effects of each disorder on educational attainment, the timing and course of marriage, marital disruption, and child-bearing. The second would examine the effects of recent (30-day) use of substances and prevalence of disorders on work loss days and work cutback days. (5) Finally, a small number of important predictors would be studied in-depth across all NCS disorders, including season of the year to predict current disorders, race/ethnicity to predict both lifetime disorders and course of disorders, gender, and urbanicity. Sensitivity analyses would be carried out to study the effects of errors in recall of age-of-onset on estimates of the predictors of lifetime disorders. Sensitivity analyses would also be carried out to study the effects on results of using different diagnostic systems (DSM-III, III-R, IV, ICD-10) and diagnostic hierarchy rules.
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