The goal of the project is the development of an epidemiologic model to estimate the benefits, costs and risks of disease prevention in the elderly. The investigators will extend work they have done in modeling the health benefit of reducing risk factors for cardiovascular disease. The new model will incorporate risks of importance in the elderly, will include cerebrovascular disease, will estimate both morbidity and mortality averted by risk reduction, and will estimate the costs and risks of the interventions used to modify risk factors. The proposed model will be designed for the counseling of elderly individuals currently free of cardiovascular disease, and will evaluate strategies for remaining disease free. It will be implemented as software running on personal computers, and marketed to physicians and other health professionals who advise the elderly on medical issues. Accompanying documentation will also be developed to explain the assumptions and non-quantifiable aspects of the decision to adopt major lifestyle changes to reduce risk.
