The goal of this research is to examine the mesoscale evolution of tropical cyclones. The Principal Investigator will test two hypotheses: (1) Vertical wind shear can aid tropical cyclone development during early growth stages. It is suggested that the vertical wind shear excites downshear convection and spin up with the new convection either becoming a new, stronger circulation center that absorbs the old or the new convection is absorbed by the original vortex, which then intensifies. (2) Intensification to hurricane strength that is sustainable does not occur until the storm satisfies the conditions specified in a previously developed theory known as the wind induced surface heat exchange theory.
The PI plans to address these hypotheses via diagnostic studies using existing data, which includes airborne data sets (both operational and research), and information from coastal radars, lightning sensors and satellites. Case studies will be chosen from the numerous storms that have formed near the United States coastline in recent years.
Broader impacts fall into four categories: education, training, dissemination of results, and external collaborations. As in prior research efforts, material from the current research will continue to be used in both undergraduate and graduate classes. Supported graduate students will participate in conferences and present their results, share software with fellow students, participate in "reading groups" in which scientific papers are discussed. Results have been and will be published in reputable journals by both the Principal Investigator and supported students, and seminars will be presented in various locations. Finally, external collaborations with other university departments and with government entities will help to make the results available to other scientists and to the operational community.
