This project will pursue the theory that the climate anomaly associated with the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations is mostly an artifact of temporal averaging and is the result of the superposition of two distinctive patterns that occur in different winter seasons. These two patterns, referred to as Type A and Type N, evolve as a result of different dynamics involving sub-seasonal climate anomalies across the United States and Europe. The primary objective of the project is to provide a more fundamental understanding of the dynamical framework which may allow for more accurate seasonal predictions with relatively finer spatial and temporal resolution, building upon earlier research by combining analysis of observations with atmospheric general circulation models, supplemented by several simpler modeling schemes. This work is expected to make a significant contribution to the development of the next generation models for seasonal prediction. The project involves unfunded international collaboration with researchers in Canada. One graduate student will be supported by the collaborating investigator at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
This project is supported under the Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR).
