The primary objective of this project is to carry out case studies of tropical wave packets within which multiple tropical cyclones are observed to form. Of particular interest are equatorial Rossby waves and mixed Rossby gravity waves in the western Pacific Ocean. In earlier work it was found that two long-lived wave packets produced a total of 14 tropical cyclones. In the new work, the initiation, maintenance, and decay of such wave packets will be studied, as well as how, when, and where tropical cyclones form within them.
Intellectual merit: The PI will (1) perform an evaluation of existing theory on the role of stretching deformation, vertical wind shear, and emanation to middle latitudes on the behavior of the wave packets, and (2) attempt to connect the forecaster's view of western Pacific tropical cyclogenesis with a framework that incorporates tropical wave theory. Completion of this work will offer:
1. the potential to improve forecasting of tropical cyclones, and 2. the introduction of an equatorial wave paradigm into tropical forecasting.
Broader impacts: This project provides learning experiences and training for undergraduate and graduate-level students in the field of tropical cyclones and equatorial waves.
