This project will examine the influence of the Madden Julian Oscillation on the warm-season precipitation of Central and North America, will develop a dynamical framework for understanding this relationship, and will make a preliminary assessment of the degree to which the Madden Julian Oscillation may provide predictability to precipitation over the Americas. This forecasting problem covers the time-scales between synoptic and seasonal. Three sets of analyses will be conducted: empirical analysis of the Madden Julian Oscillation during the course of its life cycle; diagnostic analysis of dynamics and thermodynamics; and an assessment of the potential predictability based on its phase propagation. Predictability of regional precipitation at and beyond two weeks based on the Madden-Julian-Oscillation is expected to result in economically and societally relevant impacts for Central and North America. This ranges from flood and fire risks to air quality.

Agency
National Science Foundation (NSF)
Institute
Division of Atmospheric and Geospace Sciences (AGS)
Application #
0621237
Program Officer
Jay S. Fein
Project Start
Project End
Budget Start
2005-09-01
Budget End
2009-11-30
Support Year
Fiscal Year
2006
Total Cost
$224,131
Indirect Cost
Name
University of Massachusetts Lowell
Department
Type
DUNS #
City
Lowell
State
MA
Country
United States
Zip Code
01854