This project will examine how Earth's magnetosphere-ionosphere system reacts to the high-speed plasma wind streaming from the Sun. It will extend the mathematical model called WINDMI to describe the storage and release of energy in multiple reservoirs for plasma trapped in the magnetosphere. It will develop a theoretical description for the dynamics of the supersonic solar wind plasma energy, through the magnetosphere to the high-density cold ionospheric plasma. The model will be by projecting the ideal MHD continuum equations and the more accurate kinetic theory equations onto the currents and plasma components of the driven magnetospheric magnetic components. The projections will lead to a set of coupled differential equations for the key plasma currents, densities, and temperatures. New physics components will be developed for the dayside of the magnetosphere. The dayside physics has a collisionless bow shock that reduces the supersonic flow to subsonic, while compressing the plasma and the embedded interplanetary magnetic field. A complex set of plasma currents control the plasmas in the magnetosphere and in the magnetopause boundary layer. The model will use kinetic theory calculations to describe the boundary layers and the mechanism for how the plasma is heated. The model will integrate diverse aspects of the plasma physics of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system and use scientific computing to derive real-time dynamics for the system. The model will predict the magnetic field that are used to define magnetic storms and substorms. These predictions will be compared with observations to validate the model.
The research is of intrinsic scientific interest in its investigation of the interaction of supersonic plasma winds with dipole magnetic obstacles. It also has societal relevance by providing a new tool for forecasting the occurrence of dangerous space weather storms. Much of the research will be performed by graduate students and the project therefore has significant educational benefits.
" was completed at the University of Texas at Austin in 2014 giving new methods, based on mathematical physics, to predict the onset of disruptions in GPS communications and electric power systems. The new forecasting tools were implemented as an Instant-Run warning system on the NASA website for space weather tools. The website http://ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov provides the best, well tested tools for realime space weather forecating under the tab labelled "Instant Run Models". The forecasts are available as a smart phone App. The newly developed forecasting system uses 1minute input data broadcast from a satellite [ACE] that measures the super sonic flow of plasma at the Lagrangian-1 point at a distance of 230 times the radius of the Earth--that is about one million kilometers in front of the Earth. At the L-1 point, satellites can hoover for many years since at this position the pull of gravity from the Sun is balanced by the pull of gravity from the Earth. The satellite called ACE at this point measues the details of the high Mach number -high energy plasma from the sun, sends the information back to Earth. Using this solar wind data the new model created under the NSF Grant funding computes predictions for the strength, and therefore the probable damage, of the impending solar storm on the GPS communication systems at Earth and the electric power grid. Three competing models where used in the forecasting system. The spread in the forecasts from the three models gives a measure of the uncertainty in the forecast. The system has been tested extensively now and is the most reliable fast casting system for the space weather storms now available. The warning time is approximately one hour. The system is reliable because it uses the basic laws of physics with the conservation of energy built into the forecasts. The forecasting system answers the call of the from the National Academy of Sciences for the urgent need to develope forecasting systems for "Severe Space Weather Events-Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts". The economic losses, the security breakdowns and the societal chaos from extreme solar storms is comparable to that from the major hurricances as Katrina in August 2005 with estimated $80Billion losses and Sandy in October 2012 with estimated $70Billion losses.
