The CO2-induced future climate changes and the resulting ecological consequence pose tremendous socioeconomic challenges. Development of long-term strategies for adaptation and mitigation relies on accurate prediction of such changes at regional scale. The goal of this project is to improve our capability and confidence in predicting future climate and vegetation changes in West Africa. In this project the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Land Model version 4 including the dynamic global vegetation model (CLM4-DGVM) will be coupled synchronously to the International Center of Theoretical Physics Regional Climate Model version 4 (RegCM4); the resulting fully coupled model and its component models will be used to investigate the vegetation-climate interactions in West Africa in the context of regional climate predictions. Uncertainties related to lateral boundary conditions will be addressed by the use of output from multiple global climate models. A large set of experiments will be conducted to address several specific questions, including (1) Why do the regional climate model and its driving global model predict different future precipitation trends? How do different aspects of the lateral boundary conditions influence the precipitation trend simulated in the regional climate model? (2) How does dynamic vegetation feedback influence the predicted future trend of precipitation, including the precipitation amount, intensity, and seasonality? (3) How do future climate changes modify the competition between different vegetation types? This project will advance our understanding on vegetation-climate interactions and the resulting impact on regional climate prediction, and characterize uncertainties in regional climate predictions. While some of the results (e.g., the high sensitivity of regional climate to vegetation feedback) might be region-dependent, the scientific questions to be addressed and the process-based understanding derived from this project are applicable to other regions and other models.
Broader impact: (1) Results from this project will be disseminated to local analysts and policy makers in African countries through the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) African country offices, and to researchers at the IFPRI?s Harvest Choice program, to inform food policy making and long-term agricultural research and development investment; (2) Involving middle school girls and middle- and high-school teachers, this project will promote teaching and learning in a broad context and enhance participation of under-represented groups in geosciences; (3) Results from this project will support major multi-model inter-comparison efforts including the West African Monsoon Modeling and Evaluation (WAMME) project and the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX-Africa) project.
This project is a collaborative effort between the University of Connecticut and Loyola Marymount University.
