This multi-institution project will design, develop, demonstrate and evaluate next-generation, resilient warning systems for rapid-onset hazards, such as tornadoes and flash floods. Using high spatio-temporal observations and short-term forecasts of lower-atmospheric conditions, this system will deliver user-centric, context-aware forecasts and warnings resulting in significant improvements in public response. Warning systems help mitigate the negative socio-economic impacts of natural hazards such as floods and tornados, which over the past three years caused 2303 injuries, 297 deaths and $8.5 billion in property and crop damages across the United States. As technology and its application evolve, and as our understanding of complex interactions among natural hazards, technology and human behavior improves, warnings must also evolve and change. This effort will develop a systems-level framework and underlying technology, firmly grounded in an understanding of human behavioral response, to leverage these changes to better meet the ultimate goal of improving safety for both people and property.
The intellectual merit of this effort centers upon development of new techniques for real-time, high-resolution nowcasts for rain and wind; creation of a new context-sensitive communication architecture for efficiently disseminating user-specific information tailored to various population segments; development and testing of new measures of human behavioral response; creation of a deeper of understanding of myriad influences on public response to weather hazards and warnings; and identification of new ways to link the social and technical components of the warning system. Research results will be integrated into the warning system based on time, space and risk considerations and demonstrated via prototyping next generation warning system concepts. Three key trends will be addressed: i) The rapid increase in ownership of mobile phones in all segments of the population; ii) New high spatiotemporal resolution X-band radar nowcasts (0- 1 hour) that can localize hazard risk and enable operational forecasters and emergency mangers to warn on a neighborhood-scale for tornados and flash floods; iii) New concepts for resilient data-dissemination architectures that enable targeting of weather information by context, such as precise location, or by demographics such as age. Live warning system experiments in the Dallas Fort Worth Metroplex will provide a unique opportunity to conduct empirical research, validate new technology and theoretical concepts. During severe weather events, high-resolution radar products will be disseminated to NWS forecasters who in turn will disseminate experimental geo-targeted, context-aware real-time warnings to individuals via mobile phones equipped with an app that logs information-seeking activity, communications, location, and movement, and enables post event surveys. Our project leverages the stakeholder partnerships, technology, and socio-technical research practices of the NSF Engineering Research Center for Collaborative Adaptive Sensing of the Atmosphere (CASA) and the GENI infrastructure that enables at-scale research in next-generation networks and applications.
Broader impacts of this effort will ultimately include improved public safety and disaster mitigation and potential for applications of developed technology well beyond the Dallas-Fort Worth region.. An advisory board which includes representatives of the North Central Texas Council of Governments, the City of Fort Worth, the National Weather Service Office of Science and Technology and others will enable faster translation of our results into products and services that can be replicated in north Texas, and other parts of the nation. Research on public response addresses an underserved population through our analysis of the Accessible Hazard Alert System for people with visual or hearing impairments. The K-12 education efforts, directed at minority serving institutions, include the creation of a weather programs on safety, informed by our public response research.
