This research project focusses on modeling the interannual variability of the tropical Pacific Ocean, using a 15-year record of atmospheric forcing from a version of the NCAR Community Climate Model. The skill of the ocean model's hindcast will be assessed. To the extent that the ocean model reproduces extremes of sea surface temperature that were present in the original boundary forcing, the dynamical causes of these events will be determined, including the relative contributions of zonal advection, upwelling, and anomalous surface heating. Several integrations with different sampling of surface forcing fields will be carried out to determine the requirements for measurements of surface wind stress and surface heat flux to reproduce the main results with the highest quality of specified forcing. The results will pave the way for coupled GCM studies of interannual variability and quantitative assessments of the potential of long-range forecasting. It will also contribute to the design of observing systems for the tropical Pacific Ocean. This project is important because it attempts to develop and test a way to treat in a modeling perspective the global processes by which oceans and atmosphere interact to produce and to alter climate. This project is a primary part of the World Climate Research Program's Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere research program.
