Recent theoretical and observational studies by the principal investigator and others support the view that cyclogenesis represents the rapid transient growth of favorably configured, or "optimal", perturbations of atmospheric flow. Results suggest that elements of this theoretical model may have wider application, namely, to the origin of synoptic scale waves and the maintenance of their variance in simple flows. This also could extend to the role of spatial and temporal flow inhomogeneity in organizing variance into storm tracks. Dr. Farrell will employ the stochastic dynamic equations associated with the barotropic and quasi- geostrophic models for this investigation. In addition, Dr. Farrell will continue his investigations into the limits of predictability of atmospheric flows using optimal perturbation techniques. He seeks to clarify the role of the background flow in determining the rate of perturbation growth (and decreased predictability). This area of research has important implications for, and potential to improve, weather forecasting.
