9529839 Georgakakos The multi-disciplinary research proposal developed under this planning grant will integrate regional predictive models of low-frequency atmospheric variability, predictive models of watershed hydrology and ecology, and optimal management practices of reservoir systems. The ultimate goal of the research effort is to assess ecological and water-system vulnerabilities to potential changes in weather forcing, to changes in land use, and to changes in regional water management practices. The Igua=E7u River region in southern Brazil and the Alabama/Apalachicola/Savannah River region in the United States have been selected for comparative purposes due to their similar areal extent, land use, and climate responses to El Ni=F1o events. Both regions have large reservoir projects with multiple objectives, such as municipal and agricultural water supply, the production of hydropower, and the preservation of water quality and local ecology. A good network of hydro-meteorological and agro-meteorological observing stations exists in both regions with the capability of retrieving remotely sensed data. These conditions make possible the prediction of hydroclimatological variables like rainfall, potential evapotranspiration, river flow, and estimated soil water, which could then be used for inputs to regional distributed hydrologic models that took into account local land-use and land-cover patterns to produce local predictions of energy fluxes, soil water, and surface and sub-surface runoff. These types of predictions can be further used in ecological models to assess impacts on ecosystems resulting from climate variability, and are extremely useful for when estimating the impacts and risks associated with natural variability and uncertainty in water resources management models. The multiple objectives of the water management models would include in addition to hydroelectric power production and urban water supply, agricultural objec tives and objectives related to riverine ecosystem health. This proposal brings together participants from member countries of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), a U.S. initiative to stimulate cooperative research on global change issues among the scientific institutions of the Americas. The NSF is the lead U.S. Government agency designated to carry out U.S. responsibilities within the IAI. %%% The multi-disciplinary research proposal developed under this planning grant will combine models of atmospheric variability, hydrology, and ecology in order to assess optimal management practices for large reservoir systems. The ultimate goal of the research effort is to assess ecological and water-system vulnerabilities to potential changes in weather, land use and regional water management practices. The Igua=E7u River region in southern Brazil and the Alabama/Apalachicola/Savannah River region in the United States have been selected for comparison due to their similar climates and responses to weather. Both regions have large reservoir projects with multiple objectives: municipal and agricultural water supply, the production of hydropower, and the preservation of local ecology. A good network of observing stations exists in both regions which, when combined with the appropriate models, makes possible the prediction of variables like rainfall, river flow, and ground water levels. These types of predictions can be further used in ecological models to assess impacts on ecosystems resulting from climate variability, and are extremely useful for when estimating the impacts and risks associated with natural variability and uncertainty in water resources management models. This proposal brings together participants from member countries of the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research (IAI), a U.S. initiative to stimulate cooperative research on global change issues among the scientific institutions of the Am ericas. The NSF is the lead U.S. Government agency designated to carry out U.S. responsibilities within the IAI. ***
