Abstract ATM-9530914 Saltzman, Barry Yale University Title: Dynamical Theory of Long-Term Climatic Change This award supports studies of long-term (e.g. late Cenozoic) climate change aimed at developing a predictive theory that can account for the increasing geological proxy evidence for the co- evolution of climatic variables. These variables can be subdivided into (a) fast-response atmospheric and surface state quantities that equilibrate relatively rapidly, and (b) slow-response, high- inertia quantities (e.g., ice sheet mass, deep ocean temperature, carbon inventories) that carry the main long-term evolution and comprise the "center manifold" of the climate system to which the fast response variables are attracted. These studies involve statistical analyses of the relevant time-series records, and theoretical studies based on both general circulation models (governing the fast response equilibrium processes) and dynamical- system models (governing the slow-response, non-equilibrium processes). The aim is to enlarge upon present theory of Pliocene/Pleistocene climatic evolution by: (a) extension to a three-dimensional geographical coverage of ice sheet mass, (b) a more general treatment of ocean dynamics, allowing the possibility for multiple equilibria and instability, and (c) establishing closure relations between the fast and slow response variables by systematic GCM studies.
