This investigators will apply existing models of the ionosphere, electrodynamics, and instability growth rates to examine techniques for developing short-term forecasting of propagation disturbances of the equatorial ionosphere. The study will make use of the WestPac Project, an NSF-funded chain of ionospheric stations measuring parameters that control the Rayleigh-Taylor instability, the source of equatorial spread F instabilities. Equatorial spread F produces disruption to the ionosphere that affects radio communication and is thus an important element of space weather. The model developed in this study will take advantage of the meridional specification of ionospheric conditions to characterize the conditions under which equatorial spread F forms. The study will also develop means by which ionospheric data can be assimilated into a forecasting model that can be run on a low-cost personal computer.
