Abstract ATM-9809790 Moore, Andrew M. University of Colorado Title: Understanding the Physical Basis of ENSO, ENSO Predictability, and their Relationship to Intraseasonal Variability, Using a Hierarchy of Coupled Atmosphere-Ocean Models This research has two objectives (i) to examine the potential impact of intraseasonal variability on the ENSO cycle (ii) to develop stochastic-dynamic forecast methods for ENSO. Five different models (4 intermediate, 1 hybrid coupled) will be used to study the physical factors that strongly influence the non-normal nature of the equatorial Pacific coupled ocean-atmosphere system, and thus its predictability. The proposed work is important since it will shed insights into various aspects of the ENSO phenomenon.
