Dengue viruses are responsible for the disease dengue fever and the more severe dengue haemorrhagic fever. The mosquito Aedes aegypti is the primary vector of this family of viruses. Aedes aegypti is termed peridomesticated or domiciliated because it is adapted to living with humans and largely dependent on close contact with people. The purpose of this project is to investigate in detail the transmission dynamics of dengue viruses at the individual level. This will be accomplished in two stages: 1. The development of exploratory methods for space-time analysis of mapped point patterns where points represent the location of dengue and related occurrences. These methods also include adapting existing exploratory spatial data analysis techniques in the Space-Time Analysis of Regional Systems (STARS) software framework. 2. The development and validation of Aedes aegypti metapopulation models for the study of the habitat determinants of local abundance and persistence of Aedes aegypti. Metapopulation models are employed to study populations that are distributed in spatially fragmented or patchy environments consisting of interacting local breeding populations. Specifically, stochastic patch occupancy models will capture significant biological and spatial detail. The parameters of this model are the patch or household extinction and colonization probabilities.
This project seeks to utilize and build upon the limited research in the dynamics of dengue virus transmission. The focus is on both the spatial dimensions of dengue virus transmission and the space-time dynamics of Aedes aegypti populations. The use of dynamic metapopulation models provides an important advance in developing more cost effective vector control programs than are now in existence. Furthermore, the types of analysis performed in this research may be applied to other communicable and vector-borne diseases with known etiology, and for developing control strategies for other vectors living in spatially fragmented habitats.
