Dr. Mary Shenk (University of Missouri) and Dr. Mary Towner (Oklahoma State University) will use nested datasets from Matlab, Bangladesh, to examine evolutionary and comparative models of the demographic transition, a global phenomenon in which high fertility and mortality are replaced by low fertility and mortality. Most research links the demographic transition to economic development, but the underlying mechanisms still inspire interdisciplinary debate; as a unifying framework, evolutionary theory shows great potential for helping to clarify both the motivations and mechanisms involved. The goals of the project are to advance theoretical and empirical understanding of the demographic transition using evolutionary theory, and to provide the first comprehensive comparative analyses of key evolutionary and non-evolutionary models. These goals will be met through three specific aims: (1) use large-scale, longitudinal data from Bangladesh to evaluate three influential evolutionary models of the demographic transition, focusing on risk, parental investment, and cultural evolution; (2) use an evidence-based statistical approach to compare evolutionary models with their non-evolutionary counterparts; and (3) collect detailed new data on a subsample of the Matlab population to provide in-depth information to facilitate the comparison of multiple models.
The demographic transition will have significant social impacts in the 21st century. High birthrates hinder economic development in poor nations, while population aging and low fertility undermine safety nets and contribute to social tensions in developed nations. Evolutionary approaches have the potential to revolutionize the study of demographic behavior, yet work in evolutionary demography has been limited in scope and is only familiar to a small community of scholars. This project aims to alter this pattern by testing evolutionary models using population-level data, comparing them to models from other fields, and publishing the results across disciplines. The project will address policy implications by disseminating findings to the study population, policy journals, and the development work community. It will also provide research training to students and forge durable ties between collaborating institutions.
