This project will perform an in-depth layered analysis of risk perception and communication in multiple socioeconomic groups where severe damage occurred during the April 27, 2011 EF-4 tornado events in Tuscaloosa, Alabama. The research will compare the use of social media with traditional outlets as information sources about the impending event. The tornado destroyed lower-economic sections of town that housed African-American and Hispanic neighborhoods, and this research will investigate how these vulnerable socioeconomic groups and older residents reacted compared to the more mobile and younger populations at the university and what forms of communication they used during the event. Computer-based survey methods (using iPads for those remaining in shelters) with closed and open-ended questions will help illuminate the communication lines used by these various groups and the impacts of previous severe weather event "close-calls" on the behavior of residents during this disaster.
Key to this research is the way people think about, and understand, the risk they face during well-forecasted severe weather events. Access to warnings through various media (local TV, radio, warning sirens, social media like Twitter, etc.) and how people in the storm's path behaved as a result of the warnings is the crux of this research. The project will investigate how differences in socio-demographic groups may drive the need for diverse methods of warning communication. Results from this research will inform community officials and weather forecasters on better communication methods to ensure safety and reduce loss of life in future events.
This research contributed to the growing body of literature on perception of atmospheric hazards. Despite improvements in warning technology and warning lead time, there have been too many recent fatalities from severe weather events. This research found that even in the aftermath of a significant tornado most people still will not have an adequate shelter plan for the future. Future research using the results from this grant will be focused upon systems, scales, and approaches to more clearly communicate weather risk to the public. Furthermore, in our modern pluralistic society we must embrace ways to communicate weather risk to all Americans since recent immigrants may be unfamiliar with atmospheric hazards. Our project goals and results are listed below. Goal Number 1: To understand how social media was used and who used it both before and after the 4/27/11 Tuscaloosa tornado Goal Number 2: To understand potential ethnic and racial differences in tornado risk perception, preparedness, and shelter lead-times Goal Number 3: To understand shelter seeking behavior and changes to shelter seeking behavior for future events. Furthermore, does a new tornado watch scale stimulate people to seek more appropriate shelter. Goal Number 1: 35401, the zip code that included campus, used social media the most. Facebook was chosen by 10% of the campus population as a primary source of communication before the tornado, and 17% after the tornado. Twitter was used by 8% of the campus population as a primary source of communication after the tornado, and 13% after the tornado. 33% of the campus population used Facebook as a source of notification, while 8% used Twitter. 41% of social media users took shelter due to a cue from the local TV meteorologist. And 37% used Internet, TV, or radar. Campus used social media more than the city with the exception of Facebook usage after the tornado. Goal Number 2: Tornado hazard perception for Hispanic and Latino H/L residents was significantly lower than both White and African American residents. This was still true after controlling for the influences of age, education, and years lived in Tuscaloosa. Tornado hazard preparedness for H/L residents was significantly lower than both W and AA residents; however, these results disapperaed after controlling for age, education, and years lived in Tuscaloosa. The lone exception was between H/L and W residents and age. AA residents had lower mean shelter lead-time and lower variance in shelter lead-time. Shelter lead-time was defined as the amount of time that elapsed between seeking shelter and the tornado arriving at that location. There was a significant difference in shelter lead-time between the three groups. Goal Number 3: The most significant predictors indicating likelihood of having a shelter plan before the April 27th tornado were education and age. Residents with higher education and those over 55 were more likely to have a shelter plan. The most significant predictor indicating likelihood of changing a future shelter plan was H/L ethnicity All future shelter plans were upgrades in safety compared to existing shelter plans Preliminary results inidcate favorable opinions of the new tornado watch scale integrating shelter adequacy Preliminary results also suggest that the new tornado watch scale stimulates people to choose safer shelter based on the severity of the tornado forecast on a given day. For a more detailed explanantion of methods and results, this research can be found at the following website: www.bama.ua.edu/~jcsenkbeil/research/publications.html
