This RAPID response research project investigates the impact of Hurricane Sandy on future coastal development in heavily damaged communities in New Jersey and New York. Drawing from new innovations in socio-ecological transition theory, the study tests the hypothesis that that critical transitions or regime shifts can be precipitated by external shocks events, such as major natural disasters. Using a transition framework, the study explores whether Hurricane Sandy and the responses to the severe storm surge damage from the hurricane have created conditions that may lead to a transformation of settlement patterns of the New York-New Jersey (NY-NJ) Metropolitan Region coastal zone. Research for the study entails documentation and analysis of the types and character of responses and actions that are being considered or are just underway by individual property and business owners, government officials at the municipal, county, state, and federal levels, and non-governmental organizations (NGOs) in a representative set of four heavily impacted coastal communities in New Jersey and New York (two in each state). The application of a transition framework to the assessment of responses taken in the short-term aftermath of Hurricane Sandy presents a unique opportunity to advance theoretical and applied understanding of how extreme disaster events set in motion fundamental, socio-ecological system shifts within vulnerable and at risk areas of large metropolitan regions. This project contributes to fundamental understanding of how new types of disaster events emerging with climate change might affect coastal development patterns in urbanized areas of the United States.
Within the United States and globally, disaster risk reduction policies and strategies have emphasized using lessons from the past events in order to understand what should be avoided in the future. Yet growing recognition of the non-stationarity of the climate is compelling individuals operating at all levels, from local communities to the federal government, to look at Hurricane Sandy and other similar extreme events in a different way. In particular, there is growing recognition that coastal properties, infrastructure, and larger interconnected, urban systems cannot be rebuilt with the simple goal of reducing vulnerability to the last event and that the rebuilding effort must allow for much greater resilience in the future. This study provides invaluable information about factors that promote or hinder resilience within large, coastal urban systems. Results of the study are to be disseminated via public presentations to local and regional stakeholders and through policy documents and research articles. With respect to traineeship opportunities, the study facilitates the training of graduate students at Rutgers University and City University of New York in rapid response climate change impact and adaptation assessment.
