Drought disrupts electric power system operations by reducing the availability of hydropower and nuclear power, with the latter being vulnerable to insufficient cooling water supply. The result is an increased reliance on fossil-fuel power plants, which emit pollutants that contribute to fine particulate matter and ozone. Human exposure to these pollutants causes a variety of health impacts, leading to an estimated 109,000 premature deaths in the U.S. annually. Droughts are often associated with weather conditions that allow for the build-up of higher concentrations of fine particulate matter and ozone. This project investigates how drought, electric power systems, and air quality interact to create periods of high human health risk and how these interactions may be affected by changes in climate and other environmental factors. Adoption of new policies and technologies may also alter human exposure to poor air quality. Reduced dependence on fossil fuels will likely come with significant air quality benefits, and reduced emissions could affect meteorology and snow hydrology, potentially altering the frequency and severity of drought and its impacts on natural and human systems.
The objective of this study is to advance holistic knowledge of the dynamic connections and feedbacks among climate, meteorology, drought, power plant emissions, localized human exposure to air pollution, and technological advances in the electricity sector. Four approaches will be used. First, using coupled simulations of atmospheric and meteorological processes, air physics and chemistry, and land-atmosphere hydrology, the project will determine the connections between drought and periods of poor air quality, and how these interactions could change in a warmer climate. Second, using linked models of water resource infrastructure and electric power systems, the effects of drought and the meteorological drivers of poor air quality on power-plant emissions and electricity market dynamics will be evaluated. Third, using health exposure modeling and economic analysis, this research will investigate how health impacts from drought-caused increases in power plant emissions are distributed across demographic groups, and how water stress in power systems affects the ability of system operators to dynamically manage pollution on the grid. Fourth, using coupled simulations of atmospheric and meteorological processes, air physics and chemistry, and land-atmosphere hydrology, the role of human efforts to reduce concentrations of particulate matter and ozone will be assessed. The project will investigate feedbacks that affect meteorological and hydrologic processes, potentially exacerbating or ameliorating future droughts and affecting both terrestrial and riparian ecosystems. The research team will partner with the North Carolina Museum of Natural Sciences to develop a broader impacts program that will facilitate engagement with the general public and communication of new scientific knowledge to different demographic groups.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
