This project will examine how risk, an inherent part of the human condition, can result in the adoption of complex behavioral patterns, specifically as it relates to the decisions of subsistence farmers facing volatile climatic conditions. Previous research on the topic by both anthropologists and archaeologists relies on economic utility theory to derive predictions about whether to expect risk-averse or risk-prone behavior in specific socio-environmental circumstances. Archaeology is uniquely situated for investigating how people cope with risk because of its ability to draw on the historical depth of the human experience. While industrialized agriculture dominates the global food supply today, many regions of the world still rely on subsistence agriculture. With increasing global temperatures, these subsistence farmers face growing concerns about sustainability and may not have established government safety nets in place to protect them from crop failures. What behaviors will people devise and adapt to cope with increasing climatic volatility and accompanying risk? By studying how past people implemented practices to mitigate risk, researchers and policymakers can better understand how people today will respond to the economic effects of a changing climate.
The project focuses on a region in Utah with a history of long-term human occupation. Inhabitants employed a range of strategies for storing agricultural products, including the construction of storage containers placed high in canyon walls in difficult and dangerous to access locations. What drove the imposition of such intensive storage strategies? To address this question, the researchers build upon existing frameworks of utility theory and behavioral ecology to derive predictions explaining the diverse food storage strategies. Using archaeological field data, a regional paleoclimatic reconstruction from tree rings, and newly generated radiocarbon dates from organic material collected from storage containers, the researchers will evaluate how changes in annual precipitation and agricultural productivity affected decisions to store agricultural products through time. The resultant model will be an important tool for understanding risk mitigation behaviors in humans, with broad applicability. The data generated will contribute to regional chronologies, helping to build a clearer picture of prehistoric human occupation of the region, and help resource managers better protect and preserve these archaeological resources. The collaborative focus of the project provides a unique hands-on educational experience for members of the public, as well as providing invaluable training opportunities for graduate and undergraduate students.
This award reflects NSF's statutory mission and has been deemed worthy of support through evaluation using the Foundation's intellectual merit and broader impacts review criteria.
