The research goal of this CAREER proposal is to apply uncertainty and modeling to generate alternatives frameworks to the problem of allocating scarce water to improve environmental watershed services. Sustainable environmental decision making requires a new paradigm of flexible water management tied to quantifiable environmental performance metrics. It must also consider pervasive uncertainties. The PI moves beyond the notions and mathematics of ?optimal? and ?best? to achieve four outcomes: (1) quantify habitat suitability, topological complexity, and hydro-period environmental service metrics for wetland and riparian areas at monthly and annual time scales with parameter, functional, and conceptual uncertainties. Also, relate metrics to water flow and depth variables; (2) compare enumeration and parallel coordinate strategies to identify the region of near-optimal water management strategies that perform within a specified tolerance of modeled optimal solution; (3) embed uncertain environmental performance metrics and near-optimal solution strategies in a watershed systems model to identify tradeoffs among uncertain system components; and (4) enhance current and future decision makers? skills in observation, data synthesis, leadership, and sustainable decision making.
The PI will develop and apply multiple environmental performance indicators with pervasive uncertainties in a systems modeling framework. He will demonstrate new computationally efficient ways to visualize high-dimensional resource management problems and identify sustainable water management strategies. Near-optimal solution techniques systematically identify promising (rather than single best) water management alternatives without quantifying or specifying preferences among difficult-to-characterize social, equity, and other un-modeled objectives. He will also measure and show the impacts of these advances on environmental decision making in the study area.
To achieve these advances, the project will cultivate a systemic problem-based learning (PBL) environment that integrates research and education activities. The PI will present numerous learners with relevant environmental water problems, offer them tools to help solve these problems, and provide feedback to encourage mutual learning and deeper discovery. Here, PBL will have graduate students, river basin professionals, and researchers define and quantify environmental performance metrics; incoming undergraduate students observe metrics during 5-day experiential learning trips along key river reaches that lead to year-long research experiences to map, synthesize, and present collected data and findings. Graduate students will also build new near-optimal algorithms and together with basin professionals vet and compare model-recommended water management strategies. The PI will apply developed techniques to the lower Bear River, Utah watershed where environmental managers seek new ways to secure water for wetlands and riparian areas.
