This study will add to our understanding of how individuals view hurricane risk and how this shapes their decisions in the face of a potential evacuation order. The study is designed to accomplish three goals. First, we will develop a detailed attitude questionnaire for hurricane risk perception. Second, we will examine how hurricane risk perception acts on hurricane evacuation. Third, we will take a close look at the information sources that people use during an approaching hurricane and evaluate how these information sources influence evacuation behavior. To accomplish these goals, we will establish a panel of about 600 individuals to be recruited from the U.S. Gulf and East Coast areas often affected by hurricanes. Over three years we will conduct several mail surveys of these panelists to understand their perception of hurricane risk. And during each hurricane season we will conduct phone interviews of the panelists who are being presented with a potential hurricane evacuation order.
The results of this study will provide a wide range of benefits. We will provide important new information on how people react to hurricanes. This knowledge can then be used by many other researchers to conduct other investigations on hurricanes. The scientific results of this study will also be useful to researchers working on problems involving how people react to other natural hazards as well, such as wildfires or earthquakes. The results will also have more immediate practical benefits. An important problem involving hurricane warnings is the manner in which maps and other communications are used to inform the public. Since this project will collect information from people while they are actively using such maps and communications we will be able to provide recommendations for ways to improve these risk communication tools. We hope this study will serve to improve the way that hurricane warnings are communicated. In a broader perspective this study will also provide insight into the basic ways that coastal residents view living in hurricane prone areas. This knowledge can be of use to urban planners and disaster managers to help guide the way that our growing coastal populations are situated.
Despite the considerable research that has been conducted on the human and social dynamics surrounding hurricanes, there have been surprisingly few examinations of the manner in which individuals perceive hurricane risk. Further, relatively little is known about how such risk perception may affect evacuation behavior. This study is designed to respond to this need for research through a multidimensional examination of the conditions that affect preparedness for hurricanes and behavioral intention to evacuate from a major storm. First, we are investigating how vulnerability characteristics, evacuation barriers, and perceptions of community resilience, for example, affect orientation toward hurricane preparedness and intention to evacuate. As part of this study we are also examining how hurricane risk perception and optimistic bias affect intention to evacuate from a major storm. Optimistic bias is especially of interest. This is the common phenomenon in which people feel their chances for harm are less than average, when in fact they may not be. Support from NSF has covered the three-year period in which we have conducted data collection. At the time of this report, the project has completed the three planned survey data collections. The first survey was executed in September 2010. We fielded an 8-page questionnaire to the 1,193 sampled households. Households were selected using a method to yield a uniform spatial distribution along a 10-mile coastal buffer from Wilmington, NC to Brownsville, TX. The adjusted response rate for the survey was 56%, providing 646 completed questionnaires. The first questionnaire focused on demographic characteristics, past experiences with hurricanes, measures modeling evacuation intent, a set of measures on optimistic bias, and the first version of inventories to measure evacuation barriers and hurricane risk perception. In October 2010 - April 2011 we conducted preliminary analyses on the first data set with the primary purpose of refining measurement of key concepts. This work led to the creation of the second survey questionnaire. In addition to refinement of the barriers and risk perception inventories, the second questionnaire focused on community-level attributes relevant to resilience and measures assessing where respondents turn to for information on hurricanes. Optimistic bias measures were repeated, and a few additional measures addressed perceived changes in the weather, orientation toward annual hurricane forecasts, and perceived accuracy of weather and hurricane forecasts. By late August, the second survey was closed out with 437 completed questionnaires (73% panel continuation rate). At the end of the project period we executed the last of the three mail surveys to the 406 participants remaining in the study. This questionnaire first focused on several elements that we wish to observe over time to evaluate changes. These include a third measurement of optimistic bias. We also repeated the evacuation intention measures. Finally, the risk perception inventory was repeated, which will allow for a careful refinement of this measure. At the time this report was due, the final returns from this data collection are pending. Analysis of the data will begin in early 2013. With respect to intellectual merit, this project draws from multiple theoretical perspectives and thus will inform intellectual progress in multiple domains. This study will not only develop an improved approach to risk perception in this context, but will also open new avenues for inquiry as an improved understanding of the effect of risk perception on behavior is elaborated. Academic products that are expected to result from this research include peer-reviewed journal articles, book chapters, conference paper presentations, and classroom instruction materials. We expect that this work’s significance will reside in the resulting clarification of several important concepts within this context, as well as in the manner in which this clarification will inform subsequent investigation and practice. With respect to broader impacts, this project enhanced graduate and undergraduate education at Colorado State University. Eight undergraduate students participated in this study and received hourly support. Seven of these students have at this time graduated (the last will soon) and four have gone on for graduate studies. Two graduate research assistants were employed. They will be completing project-related dissertations and will continue to co-author journal articles and co-present conference papers. Investigators have incorporated lessons from this research in their regularly taught undergraduate and graduate courses in hazards and disasters, risk communication, and research methods. Because information from this study will also be relevant to professionals in various disaster and emergency management and response fields, we will also submit reports to appropriate professional trade journals and other relevant publications. In addition, we have been presenting our research at workshops and conferences, such as the Annual Hazards Workshop, sponsored by the Natural Hazards Center at the University of Colorado. Through these channels, this project will further the objective of improving hurricane risk communication and extending broader impacts to coastal populations, especially those individuals who are at greatest risk due to social vulnerability factors.
