Researchers have predicted that there would be significant economic aftershocks of any major California earthquake, with the magnitude of that impact estimated to be two to five times the value of direct physical damage. This project will examine the data from the Loma Prieta Earthquake to assess the macroeconomic impact of that earthquake on the Bay Area economy. Macroeconomic impacts include the economic effects of the earthquake on employment, income, and output of industries in the region. Some additional work will be conducted, if possible, to estimate the effects on the economies of the State and nation. Data will be obtained from both published and unpublished reports on the economic impacts of the earthquake, unemployment claims and employment statistics. Additional data on damage to transportation and lifelines, buildings, and building contents will be obtained from public agencies and other sources. The analysis of these data will use ABAG's input-output model for the San Francisco Bay Area. Input-output analysis provides a method of desegregating an economy into its constituent sectors, thereby providing a format within which these sectors can be studied in depth and structural interdependence of the economy can be related to consumption patterns. One key goal of this project will be to identify the major factors affecting the size of the economic losses (and gains) for two reasons: (1) to enable future researchers to better predict the economic implications of future earthquakes; and (2) to enable better analysis of the costs vs. benefits of earthquake mitigation strategies.
